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Agent‐based modelling for SARS‐CoV ‐2 epidemic prediction and intervention assessment: A methodological appraisal

Mariusz Maziarz & Martin Zach

Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice 26 (5):1352-1360 (2020)

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On the Relationship between Asymptomatic Infections and Diseases.Martin Zach - 2023 - Philosophy of Medicine 4 (1).details Many microbes responsible for infectious diseases are known to run an asymptomatic course in a significant portion of the population. By highlighting the conceptual complexities of host-microbe interactions, this paper elucidates the fact that while many infections remain asymptomatic, this does not necessarily mean that such infections are of no concern for health. The paper builds on the so-called damage-response framework and considers several developments required to gain a more comprehensive perspective on infections and their relationship to diseases. Irrespective of (...) Download Export citation Bookmark
Assessing the quality of evidence from epidemiological agent-based models for the COVID-19 pandemic.Martin Zach & Mariusz Maziarz - 2021 - History and Philosophy of the Life Sciences 43 (1):1-4.details Agent-based models (ABMs) are one of the main sources of evidence for decisions regarding mitigation and suppression measures against the spread of SARS-CoV-2. These models have not been previously included in the hierarchy of evidence put forth by the evidence-based medicine movement, which prioritizes those research methods that deliver results less susceptible to the risk of confounding. We point out the need to assess the quality of evidence delivered by ABMs and ask the question of what is the risk that (...) Download Export citation Bookmark 2 citations
Follow the science? On the marginal role of the social sciences in the COVID-19 pandemic.Simon Lohse & Stefano Canali - 2021 - European Journal for Philosophy of Science 11 (4):1-28.details In this paper, we use the case of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe to address the question of what kind of knowledge we should incorporate into public health policy. We show that policy-making during the COVID-19 pandemic has been biomedicine-centric in that its evidential basis marginalised input from non-biomedical disciplines. We then argue that in particular the social sciences could contribute essential expertise and evidence to public health policy in times of biomedical emergencies and that we should thus strive for (...) Download Export citation Bookmark 6 citations
Descriptive understanding and prediction in COVID-19 modelling.Johannes Findl & Javier Suárez - 2021 - History and Philosophy of the Life Sciences 43 (4):1-31.details COVID-19 has substantially affected our lives during 2020. Since its beginning, several epidemiological models have been developed to investigate the specific dynamics of the disease. Early COVID-19 epidemiological models were purely statistical, based on a curve-fitting approach, and did not include causal knowledge about the disease. Yet, these models had predictive capacity; thus they were used to ground important political decisions, in virtue of the understanding of the dynamics of the pandemic that they offered. This raises a philosophical question about (...) Download Export citation Bookmark 5 citations

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