Hostname: page-component-848d4c4894-75dct Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-05-05T08:44:28.443Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Opinion Polling and Election Predictions

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 January 2022

Robert Northcott
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Election prediction by means of opinion polling is a rare empirical success story for social science. I examine the details of a prominent case, drawing two lessons of more general interest: (1) Methodology over metaphysics. Traditional metaphysical criteria were not a useful guide to whether successful prediction would be possible; instead, the crucial thing was selecting an effective methodology. (2) Which methodology? Success required sophisticated use of case-specific evidence from opinion polling. The pursuit of explanations via general theory or causal mechanisms, by contrast, turned out to be precisely the wrong path—contrary to much recent philosophy of social science.

Type
Social Sciences and Policy
Information
Philosophy of Science , Volume 82 , Issue 5 , December 2015 , pp. 1260 - 1271
Copyright
Copyright © The Philosophy of Science Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

†

For useful feedback, I would like to thank Anna Alexandrova and audiences at the British Society for the Philosophy of Science, Birkbeck College, and the Philosophy of Science Association.

References

Abramowitz, A. 2008. “It’s About Time: Forecasting the 2008 Presidential Election with the Time-for-Change Model.” International Journal of Forecasting 24:209–17.10.1016/j.ijforecast.2008.02.002CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Alexandrova, A. 2008. “Making Models Count.” Philosophy of Science 75:383–404.10.1086/592952CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Alexandrova, A., and Northcott, R.. 2009. “Progress in Economics.” In Oxford Handbook of Philosophy of Economics, ed. Ross, D. and Kincaid, H., 306–37. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Brante, T. 2001. “Consequences of Realism for Sociological Theory-Building.” Journal for the Theory of Social Behaviour 31:167–94.10.1111/1468-5914.00153CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Campbell, J., and Wink, K.. 1990. “Trial-Heat Forecasts of the Presidential Vote.” American Politics Quarterly 18 (3): 251–69.10.1177/1532673X9001800301CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cartwright, N. 2007. Hunting Causes and Using Them. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CBO9780511618758CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Elster, J. 1989. Nuts and Bolts for the Social Sciences. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CBO9780511812255CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fair, R. 1978. “The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President.” Review of Economics and Statistics 60:159–73.10.2307/1924969CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Giddens, A. 1976. New Rules of Sociological Method: A Positive Critique of Interpretative Sociologies. London: Hutchinson.Google Scholar
Hacking, I. 1995. “The Looping Effect of Human Kinds.” In Causal Cognition: An Interdisciplinary Approach, ed. Sperber, D., Premack, D., and Premack, A. J., 351–83. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Hibbs, D. 2000. “Bread and Peace Voting in US Presidential Elections.” Public Choice 104:149–80.10.1023/A:1005292312412CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lawson, T. 1997. Economics and Reality. London: Routledge.10.4324/9780203195390CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis-Beck, M., and Tien, C.. 2008. “The Job of President and the Jobs Model Forecast: Obama for ’08?” PS: Political Science and Politics 41:687–90.Google Scholar
Little, D. 1991. Varieties of Social Explanation. Boulder, CO: Westview.Google Scholar
Montgomery, J., Hollenbach, F., and Ward, M.. 2012. “Ensemble Predictions of the 2012 US Presidential Election.” PS: Political Science and Politics 45:651–54.Google Scholar
Northcott, R. 2013. “Degree of Explanation.” Synthese 190:3087–3105.10.1007/s11229-012-0124-9CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reiss, J. 2008. Error in Economics: Towards a More Evidence-Based Methodology. London: Routledge.Google Scholar
Strevens, M. 2005. “How Are the Sciences of Complex Systems Possible?” Philosophy of Science 72:531–56.10.1086/505471CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Taylor, C. 1971. “Interpretation and the Sciences of Man.” Review of Metaphysics 25:3–51.Google Scholar