Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Verisimilitude: a causal approach

  • Published:
Synthese Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

I present a new definition of verisimilitude, framed in terms of causes. Roughly speaking, according to it a scientific model is approximately true if it captures accurately the strengths of the causes present in any given situation. Against much of the literature, I argue that any satisfactory account of verisimilitude must inevitably restrict its judgments to context-specific models rather than general theories. We may still endorse—and only need—a relativized notion of scientific progress, understood now not as global advance but rather as the mastering of particular problems. This also sheds new light on longstanding difficulties surrounding language-dependence and models committed to false ontologies.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Adams E. (1990) Review article: Ilkka Niiniluoto. Truthlikeness. Synthese 84: 139–152

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Alexandrova A. (2008) Making models count. Philosophy of Science 75: 383–404

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Alexandrova, A., & Northcott, R. (2009). Progress in economics: Lessons from the spectrum auctions. In D. Ross & H. Kincaid (Eds.), Oxford Handbook of Philosophy of Economics (pp. 306–337). Oxford.

  • Aronson J., Harre R., Way E. (1994) Realism rescued: How scientific progress is possible. Open Court, Chicago

    Google Scholar 

  • Barnes E. (1995) Truthlikeness, translation, and approximate causal explanation. Philosophy of Science 62: 215–226

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bird A. (2007a) What is scientific progress?. Nous 41: 92–117

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bird A. (2007b) Nature’s metaphysics. Oxford University Press, Oxford

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Boyd R. (1990) Realism, approximate truth, and philosophical method. In: Savage C. (ed.) Scientific theories. University of Minnesota Press, Minneapolis, pp 355–391

    Google Scholar 

  • Brink C. (1989) Verisimilitude: Views and reviews. History and Philosophy of Logic 10: 181–201

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cartwright N. (1989) Nature’s capacities and their measurement. Clarendon, Oxford

    Google Scholar 

  • Cohen L. J. (1980) What has science to do with truth?. Synthese 45: 489–510

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Giere R. (1988) Explaining science: A cognitive approach. University of Chicago Press, Chicago & London

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Goodman, N. (1972). Seven strictures on similarity. In: Problems and projects (pp. 437–447). Indianapolis: Bobbs-Merrill.

  • Guala F. (2001) Building economic machines: The FCC auctions. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science 32(3): 453–477

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hart H. L. A., Honore A. (1985) Causation in the law. Clarendon Press, Oxford

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Hilpinen R. (1976) Approximate truth and truthlikeness. In: Przelecki M., Szaniawski K., Wojcicki R. (eds) Formal methods in the methodology of empirical sciences. Reidel, Dordrecht, pp 19–42

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Hitchcock C. (1996) The role of contrast in causal and explanatory claims. Synthese 107: 395–419

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Humphreys P. (1990) The chances of explanation. Princeton University Press, Princeton

    Google Scholar 

  • Kuhn T. (1962) The structure of scientific revolutions. University of Chicago Press, Chicago

    Google Scholar 

  • Kuipers, T. (ed.) (1987) What is closer-to-the-truth?. Rodopi, Amsterdam

    Google Scholar 

  • Laudan L. (1984) Science and values: The aims of science and their role in scientific debate. University of California Press, Berkeley

    Google Scholar 

  • Lewis D. (1986) On the plurality of worlds. Basil Blackwell, Oxford

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu C. (1999) Approximation, idealization, and laws of nature. Synthese 118: 229–256

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Miller D. (1974) Popper’s qualitative theory of verisimilitude. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 25: 166–177

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Miller D. (1975) The accuracy of predictions. Synthese 30: 159–191

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Miller D. (1994) Critical rationalism: A restatement and defence. Open Court, Chicago

    Google Scholar 

  • Miller R. (1987) Fact and method. Princeton University Press, Princeton

    Google Scholar 

  • Mormann T. (1988) Are all false theories equally false?. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 39: 505–519

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Newton-Smith W. (1981) The rationality of science. Routledge & Kegan Paul, Boston MA & London

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Niiniluoto I. (1978) Truthlikeness in first-order languages. In: Hintikka J., Niiniluoto I., Saarinen E. (eds) Essays on mathematical and philosophical logic. Reidel, Dordrecht, pp 437–458

    Google Scholar 

  • Niiniluoto I. (1987) Truthlikeness. Reidel, Dordrecht

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Niiniluoto I. (1998) Verisimilitude: The third period. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 49: 1–29

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Northcott R. (2008a) Weighted explanations in history. Philosophy of the Social Sciences 38: 76–96

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Northcott R. (2008b) Can ANOVA measure causal strength?. Quarterly Review of Biology 83: 47–55

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Oddie G. (1986) Likeness to truth. Reidel, Dordrecht

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Pearl J. (2000) Causality. Cambridge University Press, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Plott C. (1997) Laboratory experimental testbeds: Application to the PCS auction. Journal of Economics and Management Strategy 6(3): 605–638

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Popper K. (1963) Conjectures and refutations: The growth of scientific knowledge. Routledge & Kegan Paul, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Popper K. (1972) Objective knowledge: An evolutionary approach. Clarendon Press, Oxford

    Google Scholar 

  • Psillos S. (1999) Scientific realism: How science tracks truth. Routledge, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Putnam, H. (1975). How not to talk about meaning. In Philosophical papers, Vol. 1, mathematics, matter and method (pp. 250–269). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

  • Smith P. (1998) Approximate truth and dynamical theories. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 49: 253–277

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Spirtes P., Glymour C., Scheines R. (2000) Causation, prediction, and search (2nd ed.). MIT Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Weston T. (1992) Approximate truth and scientific realism. Philosophy of Science 59: 53–74

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Woodward J. (2003) Making things happen: A theory of causal explanation. Oxford University Press, Oxford

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. University of Missouri-St Louis, St Louis, MO, USA

    Robert Northcott

Authors
  1. Robert Northcott
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Robert Northcott.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Northcott, R. Verisimilitude: a causal approach. Synthese 190, 1471–1488 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11229-011-9895-7

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11229-011-9895-7

Keywords

Search

Navigation