Counterfactual Desirability

British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 68 (2):485-533 (2017)
  Copy   BIBTEX

Abstract

The desirability of what actually occurs is often influenced by what could have been. Preferences based on such value dependencies between actual and counterfactual outcomes generate a class of problems for orthodox decision theory, the best-known perhaps being the so-called Allais Paradox. In this paper we solve these problems by extending Richard Jeffrey's decision theory to counterfactual prospects, using a multidimensional possible-world semantics for conditionals, and showing that preferences that are sensitive to counterfactual considerations can still be desirability maximising. We end the paper by investigating the conditions necessary and sufficient for a desirability function to be an expected utility. It turns out that the additional conditions imply highly implausible epistemic principles.

Author Profiles

Richard Bradley
London School of Economics
H. Orri Stefansson
Stockholm University

Analytics

Added to PP
2015-01-19

Downloads
872 (#14,214)

6 months
228 (#9,110)

Historical graph of downloads since first upload
This graph includes both downloads from PhilArchive and clicks on external links on PhilPapers.
How can I increase my downloads?