Norms Affect Prospective Causal Judgments

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Abstract
People more frequently select norm-violating factors, relative to norm- conforming ones, as the cause of some outcome. Until recently, this abnormal-selection effect has been studied using only retrospective vignette-based paradigms. In within-participants designs, we use a novel set of videos to investigate this effect for prospective causal judgments—i.e., judgments about the cause of some future outcome. Three experiments show that people more frequently select norm-violating factors, relative to norm-conforming ones, as the cause of some future outcome. We discuss these results in relation to recent efforts to model causal judgment.
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Archival date: 2020-01-03
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2020-01-03

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