The purpose of the study is to forecast the number of passengers transported by air in the United States for 2021-2022. The forecast is preceded by a multidimensional comparative analysis of the number of passengers transported by air in the United States from 1 January 2019 to 2 November 2021. To achieve this goal, the data were grouped as dependent variables: years, months-years. The observed similarities, the analysis and evaluation of the literature as well as the own experience made it (...) possible to forecast primary data for the future. The obtained results show a growing trend in the number of passengers transported by air in the United States. The forecast for 3 November 2021 to 31 December 2022 is 837 459 877 prospective air passengers in the United States. The standard deviation of the obtained forecast was 255 680,3, the arithmetic mean was 1 975 141 passengers and the median was 1 998 478 passengers. The observed similar trends in the identical months of July-October in 2019 and 2021 as well as the analysis of the literature and the own experience allowed for the selection of a method for the forecasting of the number of passengers transported by air in the United States for the future. The detected regularities as recurring trends in the number of air passengers transported in the United States on a dynamic basis may be used to forecast them for the future. (shrink)

A community based cross-sectional study was carried out by a self-structured questionnaire on 168 participants aged between 18 and 60 years at two arsenic prone area of Bangladesh to determine the association between extent of depression and socio-demographic as well as illness characteristics in arsenicosis population. The mean age ± SD was 42 ± 10.15 years. Female respondents were almost twice (63.1%) than the males (36.9%) in this study. Most of the respondents (94.0%) were shallow tube well water user. Among (...) them most (80.0%) of the respondents were detected as arsenic contaminated water consumer over more than six months. Study estimated that almost half (44.3%) of the participants had suffered from mild to moderate depression in the moderate arsenicosis group. Less than quarter (20.8%) participants suffered severe depression in severe arsenicosis group. Quarter (26.7%) had mild arsenicosis with no depression. This difference was not significant. Gender had significant influence on proportion of level of depression. Females significantly suffered more from depressive symptoms than males. More than two third of the female respondents suffered from some kind of depressive symptoms; where less than one third of the males were suffered from depressive symptoms. Age has no significant relation with depression. Respondents who were 48 years and above age group had highest percentages of severe depressive symptoms (35.8%). This age group also suffered from highest percentage of mild to moderate depression (37.1%). Though most of the respondent (85.1) had no diabetes and hypertension. Respondents with physical illness suffered more from some sorts of depression than those without illness, but the result is not statistically significant. We understood that depression has health challenges in adult arsenicosis patients. Therefore, physicians should take account depression in their treatment management when deal with arsenicosis patients. (shrink)

Causation is one of philosophy's most venerable and thoroughly-analyzed concepts. However, the study of how ordinary people make causal judgments is a much more recent addition to the philosophical arsenal. One of the most prominent views of causal explanation, especially in the realm of harmful or potentially harmful behavior, is that unusual or counternormative events are accorded privileged status in ordinary causal explanations. This is a fundamental assumption in psychological theories of counterfactual reasoning, and has been transported to philosophy by (...) Hitchcock and Knobe (2009). A different view--the basis of the culpable control model of blame (CCM)--is that primary causal status is accorded to behaviors that arouse negative evaluative reactions, including behaviors that stem from nefarious motives, negligence or recklessness, a faulty character, or behaviors that lead to harmful or potentially harmful consequences. This paper describes four empirical studies that show consistent support for the CCM. (shrink)

Water quality assessment is critical for environmental sustainability and public health. This research employs neural networks to predict water quality, utilizing a dataset of 21 diverse features, including metals, chemicals, and biological indicators. With 8000 samples, our neural network model, consisting of four layers, achieved an impressive 94.22% accuracy with an average error of 0.031. Feature importance analysis revealed arsenic, perchlorate, cadmium, and others as pivotal factors in water quality prediction. This study offers a valuable contribution to enhancing water quality (...) monitoring and decision-making for stakeholders and policymakers. (shrink)

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has posed unprecedented challenges to global healthcare systems, necessitating accurate and timely forecasting of cases for effective mitigation strategies. In this research paper, we present a novel approach to predict COVID-19 cases using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), harnessing the power of machine learning for epidemiological forecasting. Our ANNs-based forecasting model has demonstrated remarkable efficacy, achieving an impressive accuracy rate of 97.87%. This achievement underscores the potential of ANNs in providing precise and data-driven insights into the dynamics (...) of the pandemic. However, this paper underscores the critical importance of a comprehensive evaluation beyond accuracy, including metrics such as sensitivity, specificity, and the area under the ROC curve (AUC-ROC), to assess the model's performance robustness. The research paper offers detailed insights into the architecture of the ANN model, encompassing critical hyperparameters, data preprocessing techniques, and regularization strategies employed to optimize model accuracy. Ethical considerations surrounding data privacy and potential biases within the COVID-19 dataset are also addressed. While the achieved accuracy is a significant milestone, this study underscores the dynamic and evolving nature of the pandemic, necessitating continuous model refinement and validation. Furthermore, it emphasizes the importance of considering false positives and false negatives in the context of public health decision-making. In conclusion, this research contributes to the arsenal of tools available for pandemic management by showcasing the potential of ANNs in COVID-19 case forecasting. It encourages ongoing exploration and adaptation of predictive models to enhance their applicability in real-world public health scenarios, ultimately contributing to more effective pandemic control and response efforts. (shrink)

This Target paper is about the hard problem of phenomenal consciousness (i.e., how is subjective experience possible given the scientific presumption that everything from molecules to minerals to minds is wholly physical?). I first argue that one of the most valuable tools in the scientific arsenal (metaphor) cannot be recruited to address the hard problem due to the inability to forge connections between the stubborn fact of subjective experience and physically grounded models of scientific explanation. I then argue that adherence (...) to the physicalist tenets of contemporary science has a limiting effect on a full appreciation of the phenomenon under discussion. (shrink)

Placebos are often used by clinicians, usually deceptively and with little rationale or evidence of benefit, making their use ethically problematic. In contrast with their typical current use, a provocative line of research suggests that placebos can be intentionally exploited to extend analgesic therapeutic effects. Is it possible to extend the effects of drug treatments by interspersing placebos? We reviewed a database of placebo studies, searching for studies that indicate that placebos given after repeated administration of active treatments acquire medication-like (...) effects. We found a total of 22studies in both animals and humans hinting of evidence that placebos may work as a sort of dose extender of active painkillers. Wherever effective in relieving clinical pain, such placebo use would offer several advantages. First, extending the effects of a painkiller through the use of placebos may reduce total drug intake and side effects. Second, dose-extending placebos may decrease patient dependence. Third, using placebos along with active medication, for part of the course of treatment, should limit dose escalation and lower costs. Importantly, provided that nondisclosure is pre-authorized in the informed consent process and that robust evidence indicates therapeutic benefit comparable to that of standard full-dose therapeutic regimens, introducing dose-extending placebos into the clinical arsenal should be considered. This novel prospect of placebo use has the potential to change our general thinking about painkiller treatments, the typical regimens of painkiller applications, and the ways in which treatments are evaluated. (shrink)

Sometimes ignorance is a legitimate excuse for morally wrong behavior, and sometimes it isn’t. If someone has secretly replaced my sugar with arsenic, then I’m blameless for putting arsenic in your tea. But if I put arsenic in your tea because I keep arsenic and sugar jars on the same shelf and don’t label them, then I’m plausibly blameworthy for poisoning you. Why is my ignorance in the first case a legitimate excuse, but my ignorance in the second case isn’t? (...) This essay explores the relationship between ignorance and blameworthiness. (shrink)

A citizens’ movement in Berlin advocates for the expropriation of housing corporations and has won a significant majority in a popular referendum in September 2021. Building on this proposal, this paper develops a general account of expropriation as a measure for corporate reform and thereby contributes to the ongoing debate on the democratic accountability of business corporations. It argues that expropriation is a valuable tool for intervention in a dire situation in some economic sector to enable a re-structuring of the (...) governance of the assets in question. Compared with other tools available, expropriation is a more forward-looking, genuinely political measure that does not depend on the legal assignment of guilt but rather proceeds in a pragmatic and problem-oriented manner. It also allows us to reconsider in how far the market mechanism should be employed in the administration of assets. Objections from private property rights against expropriation fail as corporations generally are privileged, quasi-public institutions that can justifiably be subject to democratic interventions. Expropriation is thus an important addition to the arsenal of corporate reform proposals, especially for those concerned with a broad democratization of the corporation. (shrink)

This is a reply to Vincent Carraud/René Verdon « Remarques circonspectes sur la mort de Descartes » (published in Revue du dix-septième siècle, n° 265, 2014/4, pp. 719-726, online: http://www.cairn.info/revue-dix-septieme-siecle-2014-4-page-719.htm, containing a critique of my "L'énigme de la mort de Descartes" Paris, 2011). I discuss the fatal illness and the death of Descartes, arguing that Descartes was very probably the victim of arsenical poisoning. The suspected murderer is a French priest, François Viogué, living with Descartes in 1650 at the French (...) embassy in Stockholm who may have seen in Descartes an obstacle to the hoped for conversion of queen Christina of Sweden. As against Carraud/Verdon I stress the medical facts, in particular the fact that Descartes himself seems to have suspected poisoning, since he asked for an emetic shortly before his death. (shrink)

This article highlights the underlying themes or leitmotifs that recur in Russian war propaganda. Using the method of thematic analysis, we analyze the messages related to the war in Ukraine that have been disseminated in mass media and social media by Russian propagandists through the lens of the „principles of war propaganda“ presented and illustrated by Arthur Ponsonby and Anne Morelli. More precisely, we will show that all the eleven recurrent themes of war propaganda defined by Ponsonby and Morelli intervene (...) in the messages disseminated through two important media channels for the propaganda of the Kremlin regime: the TV show „Evening with Solovyov“ and the Russian news agency TASS. Misleading war propaganda is as lethal as weapons of mass destruction, and it is part of the arsenal of any aggressor country, including Russia. Through thorough knowledge of the underlying leitmotifs, it is easier to counter it. (shrink)

Synthetic biology is a field of research that concentrates on the design, construction, and modification of new biomolecular parts and metabolic pathways using engineering techniques and computational models. By employing knowledge of operational pathways from engineering and mathematics such as circuits, oscillators, and digital logic gates, it uses these to understand, model, rewire, and reprogram biological networks and modules. Standard biological parts with known functions are catalogued in a number of registries (e.g. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Registry of Standard Biological (...) Parts). Biological parts can then be selected from the catalogue and assembled in a variety of combinations to construct a system or pathway in a microbe. Through the innovative re-engineering of biological circuits and the optimization of certain metabolic pathways, biological modules can be designed to reprogram organisms to produce products or behaviors. Synthetic biology is what is known as a “platform technology”. That is, it generates highly transferrable theoretical models, engineering principles, and know-how that can be applied to create potential products in a wide variety of industries. Proponents suggest that applications of synthetic biology may be able to provide scientific and engineered solutions to a multitude of worldwide problems from health to energy. Synthetic biology research has already been successful in constructing microbial products which promise to offer cheaper pharmaceuticals such as the antimalarial synthetic drug artemisinin, engineered microbes capable of cleaning up oil spills, and the engineering of biosensors that can detect the presence of high concentrations of arsenic in drinking water. One of the potential benefits of synthetic biology research is in its application to biofuel production. It is this application which is the focus of this entry. The term “biofuel” has referred generally to all liquid fuels that are sourced from plant or plant byproducts and are used for energy necessary for transportation vehicles (Thompson 2012). Biofuels that are produced using synthetic biological techniques re-engineer microbes into biofuel factories are a subset of these. (shrink)

This Note offers a normative critique of cost-benefit analysis, one informed by deontological moral theory, in the context of the debate over whether tort litigation or a non-tort approach is the appropriate response to mass harm. The first Part argues that the difference between lay and expert intuitions about risk and harm often reflects a difference in normative judgments about the existing facts, rather than a difference in belief about what facts exist, which makes the lay intuitions more defensible. The (...) second Part considers how tort has dealt with this divergence between lay and expert perspectives. It also evaluates how tort's approach has differed from that of public law approaches to accident law, such as legislative compensation and risk regulation by administrative agencies. Ultimately, tort's ability to recognize the value of lay intuitions supports retaining the tort perspective as part of our societal arsenal of responses to risk and harm. This ability can also support a pro-tort perspective in two practical debates in the arena of tort law: that over preemption of tort law by administrative agency judgments, and that over access to tort recovery as part of a no-fault system. (shrink)

"The concluding chapter, penned by C. E. Emmer, both revisits and greatly expands upon disputations within the contested territory of kitsch as term and tool in cultural turf-war arsenals. Focusing on debates surrounding two visual responses to the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, Dennis Madalone's 2003 music video for the patriotic anthem 'America We Stand As One' and Jenny Ryan's 'plushie' sculpture, 'Soft 9/11,' Emmer utilizes these debates to reveal the coexisting and competing attitudes towards ostensibly kitschy objects and (...) the contentiousness of deploying kitsch as a term in these debates. The buzzing activity of the internet provides much of the raw material for his arguments. Through his close reading of both the works themselves and the public response to them, Emmer once more focuses attention on the competing and overlapping attitudes towards kitsch and the way in which it and its semantic cousins remain a viable and valuable resource with which to police the borders that surround the artworld. Ultimately, his contribution further grounds a wider premise operative in this collection--namely, that a simple and rigid dichotomy of kitsch and (high) art does not and indeed cannot capture the elusive and mercurial nature of kitsch." --from the editor's introduction. (shrink)

Consciousness vehicle externalism is the claim that the material machinery of a subject’s phenomenology partially leaks outside a subject’s brain, encompassing bodily and environmental structures. The DEUTS argument is the most prominent argument for CVE in the sensorimotor enactivists’ arsenal. In a recent series of publications, Kirchhoff and Kiverstein have deployed such an argument to claim that a prominent view of neural processing, namely predictive processing, is fully compatible with CVE. Indeed, in Kirchhoff and Kiverstein’s view, a proper understanding of (...) predictive processing mandates CVE. In this essay, we critically examine Kirchhoff and Kiverstein’s argument. Our aim is to argue in favor of the following three points. First, that Kirchhoff and Kiverstein’s emphasis on cultural practices lends no support to CVE: at best, it vindicates some form of content externalism about phenomenal content. Secondly, the criteria Kirchhoff and Kiverstein propose to identify a subject’s phenomenal machinery greatly overgeneralize, leaving them open to a “consciousness bloat” objection, which is an analog of the cognitive bloat objection against the extended mind. Lastly, we will argue that the “consciousness bloat” problem is inbuilt in the very argumentative structure of the DEUTS argument. We will thus conclude that, contrary to the philosophical mainstream, DEUTS is not the best argument for CVE in the sensorimotor enactivists’ argumentative arsenal. (shrink)

The article is devoted to the historical and philosophical problems of the study of the text of the "Gridaya Sutra" ("Sherab Nyingpo") within the tradition of Tibetan Buddhism. As a prolegomena, an overview of the field of translation was chosen - for a better understanding of both the logic of the formation of the Buddhist tradition of the Prajna-paramita sutras in India (which is revealed during translations from Sanskrit into Western languages), and the principles of their textual transmission to Tibet (...) (through the clarification of the principles of Tibetan translation from Sanskrit in the Lotsa tradition). The purpose of the study is to identify the mechanism that made it possible to make a transition in the Buddhist religious and philosophical space from the intellectual understanding of the ideas of emptiness (explained in the Magayana sutras) to their direct practice, the meaning of which is the detection of emptiness in one's own stream of consciousness (proposed by the tantric teachings of Vajrayana).. And since the "Gridaya-sutra" is the quintessence of the entire tradition of Prajna-paramita texts and contains a unique Buddhist mantra of "consolation in suffering", it, as a representative of the teachings of the sutras, was chosen for comparative analysis with the tradition of Mantrayana texts, i.e. Tantrayana. The representative of the tantric tradition was chosen to be the teaching text of the highest class of tantras - the Anuttarayogatantra called Kalachakra, which, due to its systematic development and strong semantic connections with classical Buddhist sciences, is considered the most consistent and structured tantra. As a result of research in Kalachakra, a specific complication of the meanings of the "Gridaya-sutra" was revealed, which opened the way for the individual from contemplating the emptiness of dharmas to collapsing the space-time continuum of the inner experience of conceptuality into a transcendent singularity for the sake of understanding true knowledge (jnana). In addition, the key mechanism of such a transition, which made it possible for the third turning of the Dharma wheel to become a continuation of the practice of the second turning, and not just another separate method, turned out to be the mechanism of the mantra, which is transformed from a concise morphological formula in the "Gridaya-sutra" into a phonetic formula in the Kalachakra. Therefore, the "Gridaya-sutra" takes the place of a trigger in the paramitayana, which makes it possible to organically connect the "higher" arsenal of Buddhist tantra to the process of enlightenment. (shrink)

Um argumento esquecido em um verdadeiro arsenal de guerra que Espinosa se dedicou a reunir contra o que considerava um dos maiores, senão o maior, empecilho para que os homens alcançassem a verdadeira felicidade, a saber, o falso conceito que possuem da liberdade humana quando a tomam por uma liberdade de arbítrio, contrária a toda e qualquer necessidade. Argumento forjado, certamente, com boa dose de ironia e ânimo polemista contra um objetor que se diz defensor do cartesianismo, e, portanto, em (...) certa medida contra Descartes. Apresentar um argumento que envolva a referência a situações oníricas contra a concepção cartesiana de liberdade como poder dos contrários é, certamente, pretender fazer o feitiço virar contra o feiticeiro. No entanto, para além desse encanto particular e quase anedótico, creio que esse argumento contribui com um bom ponto à inesgotável discussão sobre a natureza da liberdade, debate caro às inquietações filosóficas do nosso querido amigo. Ponto para cuja elucidação espero poder contar com sua ajuda, pois, como se poderá ver na sequência, minha compreensão do argumento é ainda bastante preliminar. Duas traduções porque as cartas onde esse argumento muito provavelmente surgiu pela primeira vez não contam ainda, até onde eu saiba, com uma tradução para a língua portuguesa que permita um acesso mais fácil ao pensamento do filósofo. Legitima preocupação pedagógica, uma entre muitas que caracterizam o professo Boeira. (shrink)

The article emphasizes the relevance of revising the content of professional activities and the range of powers of specialists of IT departments in business organizations and, accordingly, the conceptual foundations of their professional training. The need for forming future IT specialists with unique skills and abilities to carry out strategic and tactical activities and develop the relevant competencies, which allows them to be active participants in the construction and implementation of the organization’s business strategies, has been clarified. The purpose of (...) the article is to review and analyse the features of strategic and tactical activities in the functioning of IT specialists in a business organization, as well as the study of methodological foundations of the formation of tactical and strategic competence in future IT specialists, which will allow them to implement various measures of strategic planning and project work successfully. During the study of the problem of training future IT specialists for strategic and tactical activities in business organizations, methods of retrospective analysis, generalization and interpolation of theoretical aspects of the problem were applied; methods of conceptualizing advanced pedagogical experience in the formation of professional important competencies of future IT specialists were used. It has been found that tactical and strategic competence determines the ability of an IT specialist to project short-term and long-term goals, develop methods and tactics for their achievement, and in this way effectively organize professional activity and achieve success in it. It has been substantiated that the development of tactical and strategic competence can be realized in terms of a specially organized training process for future IT specialists contributing to their mastering the experience of developing and approbation IT strategies and tactics. Methodological approaches (competent-oriented, creative-developmental, multidisciplinary, practice-oriented, problem-based ones) have been revealed, for them the methods of training future IT specialists for strategic and tactical activities in business organization should be based. It has been noted that the methods of formation of future IT specialists’ readiness for strategic and tactical activities involve a number of stages, namely: 1) actualization of professional needs, interests, motives, and formation of students’ business values; 2) determination of the goal and selection the tools of influence aimed at the shaping of students’ scientific and theoretical knowledge and personal experience in the implementation of professional skills; 3) arming students with an arsenal of strategies that allow for a holistic analysis of the situation, actions, and motives and, as a result, permits to reduce the operational costs of the organization and the turned IT service into a driver of business; 4) modelling of possible strategy implementation tactics in various production situations; 5) analysis of acquired experience, control and correction of formation of future IT specialists’ professionally important competencies. The features of the application of methods of activation and stimulation of motivation and responsibility in educational and professional activities, organizational methods, the method of immersion in the situation, the method of pattern and case study in the process of formation of tactical and strategic competence in future IT specialists have been defined and described. A conclusion was made regarding the requirement for step-by-step application of methods and technologies in order to prepare future IT specialists for strategic and tactical activities during their professional training process. (shrink)

Recent revelations of Iran’s hitherto undisclosed uranium enrichment programs have once again incited western fears that Tehran seeks nuclear weapons’ capability. Their fears seem motivated by more than the concern for compliance with the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT). Rather, they seem strongly connected to the western moral assumptions about what kind of government or people can be trusted with a nuclear arsenal. In this paper, I critically examine the western assumptions of the immorality of contemporary nuclear proliferation from an international (...) ethical stance that otherwise might be expected to give it unequivocal support – the stance of Kantian nonideal theory. In contrast to the uses of Kant that were prominent during the Cold War, I advance and apply a sketch of a Kantian nonideal theory that specifies the conditions (although strict conditions) under which nuclear proliferation for states like Iran is morally permissible even though the NPT forbids it. (shrink)

In experimental settings, scientists often “make” new things, in which case the aim is to intervene in order to produce experimental objects and processes—characterized as ‘effects’. In this discussion, I illuminate an important performative function in measurement and experimentation in general: intervention-based experimental production (IEP). I argue that even though the goal of IEP is the production of new effects, it can be informative for causal details in scientific representations. Specifically, IEP can be informative about causal relations in: regularities under (...) study; ‘intervention systems’, which are measurement/experimental systems; and new technological systems. (shrink)

In 2003, the then president of the United States, George W. Bush, started a war against Iraq, under the arguments that Saddam Hussein had possession of several weapons of mass destruction and that he harbored members of Al-Qaeda. The question of the existence of these weapons was questionable, but it led to a war that culminated in Hussein's removal from power and his arrest – later sentenced to death for his conduct in that country. It is interesting to show that (...) the existence – or not – of that arsenal, never seen before, is a question about an ontology. The question about how the intelligence service arrived at this answer is epistemic; defining how a conclusion is reached, like the one we illustrate, or how it is sustained, are epistemological biases. (shrink)

This article interrogates how both visual culture and queer futurity can be made visible in and through the Philippine archive as a case in point. It begins by problematizing a paradoxical specter of futurity that seems to haunt more the Global North. But despite such haunting, the Philippines in the Global South continues to have thin to nil (i.e., nearly absent) envisioning toward a queer futurity, for most Filipino LGBTQIA + scholars seem to still be engaged in recovering “lost histories” (...) from the archives and “thick descriptions” of the present, while focusing more on the textual than the visual. The article then proceeds to discuss mobilizing ekphrasis and representation as main conceptual tools in bridging the temporally opposite projects of queer archiving and queer futurity. It analyzes through ekphrastic re-reading the various LGBTQIA + representations from the Philippine archive – that is, a “palimpsestic site” of colonial confrontations, national (re)construction, and potentially global queer critique. These re-readings along the archival grain juxtapose the archival representations as historically authentic vis-à-vis their more present-day representations as visual proxies. Yet more crucially, the potency of these ekphrastic re-readings – in lieu of visually actual – lies in their capacity to reverberate queer possibilities, re-awakening them from their sleep within the archives, and thus re-mobilizing them toward becoming a useful part of academics, activists, and artists’ “shared arsenal” in re-envisioning and, hopefully in time, reifying such past possibilities into future queer actualities anew. (shrink)

In this article, I present a view on the future of nuclear war which takes into account the expected technological progress as well as global political changes. There are three main directions in which technological progress in nuclear weapons may happen: a) Many gigaton scale weapons. b) Cheaper nuclear bombs which are based on the use of the reactor-grade plutonium, laser isotope separation or are hypothetical pure fusion weapons. Also, advanced nanotechnology will provide the ability to quickly build large nuclear (...) arsenals and AI could be used in designing, manufacturing and nuclear strategy planning. c) Specialized nukes like nuclear-powered space lasers, hafnium bombs and nuclear-powered space ships as kinetic weapons. Meanwhile, the nuclear war strategy also has changed as the bipolar world has ended and as new types of weapons are becoming available. The first strategy change is that Doomsday weapons for blackmail will become attractive for weaker countries which can’t use ICBM to penetrate the anti-missile defense of the enemies. Secondly, the cheaper nukes will become available to smaller actors, who may be involved in “worldwide guerilla”. Cheaper nukes and a larger number of actors also encourage nuclear terrorism and anonymous or false-flag warfare. This will result in the normalization of the use of nuclear weapons in war and growing nuclear arsenals, now distributed between many countries. The third change of the strategy is the use of nukes not against primary military targets but on other objects, which could increase their effects: nuclear power plants, supervolcanos, EMP, tsunamis, taiga fires for global cooling, and even more hypothetical things like asteroid deflection to Earth. All these unconventional means and strategies of nuclear war could become available somewhere in the 21st century and may cause or contribute to the civilizational collapse and even human extinction. (shrink)

Pandemics have been suggested as global risks many times, but it has been shown that the probability of human extinction due to one pandemic is small, as it will not be able to affect and kill all people, but likely only half, even in the worst cases. Assuming that the probability of the worst pandemic to kill a person is 0.5, and assuming linear interaction between different pandemics, 30 strong pandemics running simultaneously will kill everyone. Such situations cannot happen naturally, (...) but because biotechnology is developing analogously to Moore’s law, it may become possible in the near future (10-50 years from now), because of biohackers, CRISPR, bioprinters, AI-assisted DNA-programing, and weapons of “knowledge-enabled mass destruction” published on the Internet. It could also happened in case of large-scale biological war, or if a rogue country released its entire biological arsenal simultaneously. We also will address other scenarios and risk increasing factors as well as mitigation and adaptation strategies. (shrink)

This study used a flame atomic absorption spectrometer (FAAS) and atomic fluorescence spec-trophotometer (AFS) to detect the concentrations of chromium (Cr), cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb), hy-drargyrum (Hg) and arsenic (As) in soils and three genotypes of vegetables in greenhouse, as well as analyzed the physical and chemical properties of soils, including soil pH, soil organic matter (OM), basic nutrients, electrical conductivity (EC) and cation exchange capacity (CEC) in Guan- zhong areas, Shaanxi province, China. The results showed that comparing to subsoil, (...) the sampled topsoil is enriched in Cr, Cd, Pb, As and Hg. Cd (0.83 - 3.17 mg·kg-1) and Hg (0.40 - 1.44 mg·kg-1) are exceeding the limited value stated in “the 2006 Greenhouse Vegetable Producing Environmental Quality Evaluation Standards” of 0.40 mg·kg-1 and 0.35 mg·kg-1 respectively. However, Nanzhuang greenhouse soil is within the limits. The heavy metal pollution index (HPI) of soil in Sanyuan (8.10) is the highest and in Dongzhang (4.23) is the lowest. The contents of Pb (0.201 - 0.376 mg·kg-1) were exceeding the limited value (0.20 mg·kg-1) in vegetables species, and Cd (0.0363 - 0.0572 mg·kg-1) in some place were also exceeding the limited value (0.05 mg·kg-1). Greenhouse soils were becoming acidified year after year; the ratios of N, P and K in soil were seriously imbalanced. According to the impacting factors, OM, pH, available P, EC and CEC have obviously effected the accumulation of Cr and Hg. However, there was not enough evidence for the effects of available nitrogen and available potassium. (shrink)

The appropriationist approach to history of philosophy is often accused of being antihistorical and thus unreliable. The appropriationists are only concerned with their own philosophical problems, and they make discriminating use of the historical data as far as it serves their needs. Its rival, the contextualist approach, claims to be an honest, dedicated and reliable treatment of history. The contextualists are willing to make use of the tedious methodology of Classical studies as long as it promises to uncover the true (...) historical data. In this paper I present a case where the contextualists have failed to surpass their rival appropriationists in their quest for veracity. The case is the debate about Aristotle’s De Interpretatione 9, which took place in 1950-1980s. In this debate the contextualists were unable to offer any other results except for those which have already been suggested by the appropriationists. In addition I demonstrate how the contextualists selectively used the arsenal of Classical methodology not to uncover the truth, but to justify their own preconceived interpretations. (shrink)

La presente compilación de textos es la segunda obra colectiva fruto del trabajo del grupo de investigadores que forman parte del proyecto La Alianza Bolivariana para las Américas (ALBA), sus políticas públicas y los valores fundacionales de la integración latinoamericana y caribeña, radicado en la Universidad Central «Marta Abreu» de Las Villas, Cuba. La temática abordada en esta obra (la evaluación de políticas públicas en América Latina) es continuidad lógica del primer libro de nuestro grupo de investigación, intitulado Políticas públicas. (...) Teoría y práctica en el escenario latinoamericano, publicado en 2018 bajo el sello de la Editorial Feijóo. En aquella obra se expuso una crítica constructiva al manejo de las políticas públicas por parte de los gobiernos progresistas instalados en el poder en América Latina en los tres primeros lustros del actual siglo. Consideramos constructiva la crítica realizada en aquel texto, pues la misma partió de un cuestionamiento a la teoría sobre política pública, a sus preceptos teóricos, al escaso arsenal sobre evaluación producido por los teóricos clásicos de esta materia, y particularmente a las interpretaciones y formas de aplicación de la política pública en todo el subcontinente americano, aun cuando el interés fundamental del proyecto eran los países del ALBA. Aunque el proyecto integracionista ALBA constituye nuestro objeto de estudio declarado, para los investigadores del grupo está claro que cualquier proceso de integración regional en América Latina solo se sostendrá si está cobijado por la unidad de los pueblos latinoamericanos y caribeños en torno a la defensa de su soberanía, identidad cultural y desarrollo autóctono. Respecto a ello, el memorable líder cubano Fidel Castro, en la Cumbre Iberoamericana de Salvador de Bahía, argumentó que: «La cuestión no estriba en que cada país de nuestra área trate de salvarse por sí mismo, porque es un sueño imposible en un mundo dominado hoy por gigantes industriales y políticos. Tenemos necesidad de crear entre todos un gigante, para poder realmente desarrollarnos y disfrutar de paz, independencia y seguridad». En vista de ello, casi desde el inicio del proceso investigativo nos inclinamos a ampliar nuestras indagaciones al resto de América Latina, lo que condujo a que en este texto (y muy probablemente en las entregas futuras sobre el tema de las políticas públicas en América Latina), aparecieran trabajos que no abordaban a los países que integran o integraron el ALBA-TCP, sino a otros países del subcontinente. La evaluación de políticas públicas en América Latina fue abordada desde varios ángulos y con distintos grados de profundidad, lo que generó diversos tipos de resultados. Algunos de estos no alcanzaron el nivel de coherencia requerido para su publicación inmediata, pero de igual forma fueron muy valiosos para el aprendizaje colectivo realizado en los talleres de discusión del proyecto, por lo que damos gracias a todos los esfuerzos e intentos realizados. Dado el escaso desarrollo sobre la cuestión de la evaluación de políticas públicas y especialmente el escaso desarrollo de este acápite en América Latina, no era posible pretender lograr evaluaciones rigurosas en un primer momento. Para el grupo de investigadores era esencial ganar en cultura de evaluación y hacer conciencia sobre este aspecto, que es el objetivo central de este libro. En vista de ello, el asunto de la evaluación de políticas públicas en América Latina se abordó desde el ámbito teórico general, enfatizando en su necesidad y rigurosidad, y desde experiencias concretas de evaluación en diversos países. En varios casos, estas experiencias no podemos identificarlas con evaluaciones propiamente dichas, sino con valoraciones o acercamientos a la evaluación, que contribuyen igualmente a elevar la cultura en este aspecto y a la conciencia de la necesidad de evaluación. (shrink)