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  1. What do we see in pictures? The sensory individuals of picture perception.Bence Nanay - 2022 - Philosophical Studies 179 (12):3729-3746.
    When I am looking at an apple, I perceptually attribute certain properties to certain entities. Two questions arise: what are these entities (what is it that I perceptually represent as having properties) and what are these properties (what properties I perceive this entity as having)? This paper is about the former, less widely explored, question: what does our perceptual system attribute properties to? In other words, what are these ‘sensory individuals’. There have been important debates in philosophy of perception about (...)
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  • Motivated reasoning in the prediction of sports outcomes and the belief in the “hot hand”.João P. N. Braga, André Mata, Mário B. Ferreira & Steven J. Sherman - 2017 - Cognition and Emotion 31 (8):1571-1580.
    The present paper explores the role of motivation to observe a certain outcome in people’s predictions, causal attributions, and beliefs about a streak of binary outcomes. In two studies we found that positive streaks lead participants to predict the streak’s continuation, but negative streaks lead to predictions of its end. More importantly, these wishful predictions are supported by strategic attributions and beliefs about how and why a streak might unfold. Results suggest that the effect of motivation on predictions is mediated (...)
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  • Predicting Outcomes in a Sequence of Binary Events: Belief Updating and Gambler's Fallacy Reasoning.Kariyushi Rao & Reid Hastie - 2023 - Cognitive Science 47 (1):e13211.
    Beliefs like the Gambler's Fallacy and the Hot Hand have interested cognitive scientists, economists, and philosophers for centuries. We propose that these judgment patterns arise from the observer's mental models of the sequence-generating mechanism, moderated by the strength of belief in an a priori base rate. In six behavioral experiments, participants observed one of three mechanisms generating sequences of eight binary events: a random mechanical device, an intentional goal-directed actor, and a financial market. We systematically manipulated participants’ beliefs about the (...)
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  • Perceptions of randomness in binary sequences: Normative, heuristic, or both?Stian Reimers, Chris Donkin & Mike E. Le Pelley - 2018 - Cognition 172 (C):11-25.
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