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How epidemics end

Centaurus 63 (1):210-224 (2021)

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  1. When Do Epidemics End? Scientific Insights from Mathematical Modelling Studies.Natalie M. Linton, Francesca A. Lovell-Read, Emma Southall, Hyojung Lee, Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov, Robin N. Thompson & Hiroshi Nishiura - 2022 - Centaurus 64 (1):31-60.
    Quantitative assessments of when infectious disease outbreaks end are crucial, as resources targeted towards outbreak responses typically remain in place until outbreaks are declared over. Recent improvements and innovations in mathematical approaches for determining when outbreaks end provide public health authorities with more confidence when making end-of-outbreak declarations. Although quantitative analyses of outbreaks have a long history, more complex mathematical and statistical methodologies for analysing outbreak data were developed early in the 20th century and continue to be refined. Historically, such (...)
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  • Epidemics that End with a Bang.Samuel K. Cohn - 2022 - Centaurus 64 (1):207-216.
    To answer how epidemics end, one must ask two intersecting but separate questions: first, how particular waves of epidemics end, whether of yellow fever, cholera, plague; and second, how epidemic diseases become eradicated-either through scientific intervention, as with smallpox in the 1970s, or simply by disappearing for reasons that remain mysterious, as with the Second Plague Pandemic from ca. 1347. This article challenges two general notions on how epidemics end. First, individual waves of plagues in European municipalities or regional states (...)
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  • The Many Endings of Recent Epidemics: HIV/AIDS, Swine Flu 2009, and Policy.Virginia Berridge - 2022 - Centaurus 64 (1):145-154.
    Studying national and local contexts is essential for understanding the ending of epidemics and related policy responses. This article examines HIV/AIDS in the 1980s and 1990s and swine flu in 2009-2010 in the UK as comparative “tracer epidemics” to understand the multiplicity of endings from the perspective of the contemporary history of policy. Such endings can include: the political ending, changes in definition away from epidemic, the medical end, different endings for different “risk groups,” local endings, and media endings. This (...)
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  • Ends and Means: Typhus in Naples, 1943–1944.Roderick Bailey - 2022 - Centaurus 64 (1):249-260.
    In 1943, Allied forces in recently liberated Naples were confronted with an outbreak of louse-borne typhus. The established Anglo-American narrative of that epidemic is a triumphant story of effective action that controlled the disease with unprecedented speed and success, aided by the pioneering use of the pesticide DDT. Rather than retell that tale, this article discusses why the outbreak and its ending are largely absent from Italian accounts of wartime Naples. Drawing on Italian sources and contemporary Allied ones, it argues (...)
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  • Chikungunya in Brazil, an Endless Epidemic.Jean Segata - 2022 - Centaurus 64 (1):133-144.
    This article examines how chikungunya virus disease is epidemiologically and politically invisible in Brazil, unlike other diseases related to the Aedes Aegypti mosquito, such as Zika, dengue, and yellow fever. It demonstrates the intricacy of identifying the presence of chikungunya, as its effects are generally materialised in pain, which is difficult to measure and quantify, and thus is invisible to medical and state bureaucracy. As with other chronic diseases, chikungunya transforms identities and social relations among those affected. By analysing the (...)
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  • “Going ‘the Last Mile’ to Eliminate Malaria” in Myanmar?Atsuko Naono - 2022 - Centaurus 64 (1):119-132.
    This article explores the question of how malaria “ends” in Myanmar, since malaria has been categorized both as an epidemic and as being endemic on seemingly countless occasions. The example of malaria reveals some of the limitations of understanding a disease within a single category of experience, such as an “epidemic.” In the case of malaria, epidemic is a shifting term that is best understood as being the point at which health authorities decide to intervene in the disease, rather than (...)
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  • Pandemic Responses and the Strengths of Health Systems: A Review of Global AIDS Historiography in Light of COVID-19. [REVIEW]Reiko Kanazawa - 2023 - Isis 114 (S1):162-205.
    This paper surveys the historiography of the global response to HIV/AIDS. Since 1981, when the disease was first identified, there have been great strides in the medical and biological sciences in understanding the impact of the new virus on the human immune system. Although there is still no successful vaccine, antiretroviral (ART) treatment continues to improve the likelihood of HIV-positive people living long and healthy lives. We have also seen a few exciting cases of full recovery, which will allow scientists (...)
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  • Plague in the Mediterranean and Islamicate World.Nükhet Varlık - 2023 - Isis 114 (S1):313-362.
    This essay surveys the evolution of historical scholarship on epidemic diseases in the Mediterranean/Islamicate world with a particular focus on plague. Temporally, it covers the scholarship on plague epidemics during the last 1,500 years, surveyed in three major pandemics: first, second, and third pandemics of plague. Geographically, it addresses the Mediterranean basin and its hinterland, including the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), the Anatolian peninsula, the Balkans, and occasionally drawing on adjacent areas such as the Black Sea region and (...)
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  • The Multiple Temporalities of Epidemic Endings.Einar Wigen - 2022 - Centaurus 64 (1):273-286.
    The beginnings of epidemics are often told as if they are simple to locate in time. They take the form of a crisis, and as such, function as great synchronisers of different temporalities, bringing social temporalities “in line” with biological ones. In the case of the COVID-19 pandemic, for example, political processes that are usually slow were accelerated in order to “catch up with” the fast pace of the virus's reproduction, as policymakers saw a need to contain the virus. The (...)
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  • Closure and the Critical Epidemic Ending.Arthur Rose - 2022 - Centaurus 64 (1):261-272.
    “An epidemic has a dramaturgic form,” wrote Charles Rosenberg in 1989, “Epidemics start at a moment in time, proceed on a stage limited in space and duration, following a plot line of increasing and revelatory tension, move to a crisis of individual and collective character, then drift towards closure.” Rosenberg's dramaturgic description has become an important starting point for critical studies of epidemic endings (Vargha, 2016; Greene & Vargha, 2020; Charters & Heitman, 2021) that, rightly, criticize this structure for its (...)
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  • Historical Epidemiology and the Single Pathogen Model of Epidemic Disease.James L. A. Webb - 2022 - Centaurus 64 (1):197-206.
    Pre-existing medical conditions and co-infections are common to all human populations, although the natures of the pre-existing conditions and the types of co-infections vary. For these reasons, among others, the arrival of a highly infectious pathogenic agent may differentially affect the disease burden in different sub-populations, as a function of varying combinations of endemic disease, chronic disease, genetic or epigenetic vulnerabilities, compromised immunological status, and socially determined risk exposure. The disease burden may also vary considerably by age cohort and socio-economic (...)
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  • Regulating Movement in Pandemic Times.R. Jefferies, T. Barratt, C. Huang & A. Bashford - 2023 - Journal of Bioethical Inquiry 20 (4):633-638.
    As COVID-19 and its variants spread across Australia at differing paces and intensity, the country’s response to the risk of infection and contagion revealed an intensification of bordering practices as a form of risk mitigation with disparate impacts on different segments of the Australian community. Australia’s international border was closed for both inbound and outbound travel, with few exceptions, while states and territories, Indigenous communities, and local government areas were subject to a patchwork of varying restrictions. By focusing on borders (...)
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  • Vaccination and Pandemics.Dora Vargha & Imogen Wilkins - 2023 - Isis 114 (S1):50-70.
    Vaccines and vaccination are richly explored areas of study within the history of science and medicine, connecting related fields of the history of science and technology, and spanning across subfields such as biomedical sciences, animal studies, colonial and postcolonial history, and the history of global health. Vaccination is a thoroughly political act that is at once an intimate and local issue and a transnational one, with its particular set of politics connecting stakes for the individual and the community. Vaccination also (...)
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  • Centaurus : Past and Future.Koen Vermeir - 2021 - Centaurus 63 (4):619-620.
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