In the first part I argue that normic laws are the phenomenological laws of evolutionary systems. If this is true, then intuitive human reasoning should be fit in reasoning from normic laws. In the second part I show that system P is a tool for reasoning with normic laws which satisfies two important evolutionary standards: it is probabilistically reliable, and it has rules of low complexity. In the third part I finally report results of an experimental study which demonstrate that (...) intuitive human reasoning is in well accord with basic argument patterns of system P. (shrink)

We study probabilistic logic under the viewpoint of the coherence principle of de Finetti. In detail, we explore how probabilistic reasoning under coherence is related to model- theoretic probabilistic reasoning and to default reasoning in System . In particular, we show that the notions of g-coherence and of g-coherent entailment can be expressed by combining notions in model-theoretic probabilistic logic with concepts from default reasoning. Moreover, we show that probabilistic reasoning under coherence is a generalization of default reasoning in System (...) . That is, we provide a new probabilistic semantics for System , which neither uses infinitesimal probabilities nor atomic bound (or big-stepped) probabilities. These results also provide new algorithms for probabilistic reasoning under coherence and for default reasoning in System , and they give new insight into default reasoning with conditional objects. (shrink)

Gentzen’s approach to deductive systems, and Carnap’s and Popper’s treatment of probability in logic were two fruitful ideas that appeared in logic of the mid-twentieth century. By combining these two concepts, the notion of sentence probability, and the deduction relation formalized in the sequent calculus, we introduce the notion of ’probabilized sequent’ \ with the intended meaning that “the probability of truthfulness of \ belongs to the interval [a, b]”. This method makes it possible to define a system of derivations (...) based on ’axioms’ of the form \, obtained as a result of empirical research, and then infer conclusions of the form \. We discuss the consistency, define the models, and prove the soundness and completeness for the defined probabilized sequent calculus. (shrink)

We present new probabilistic generalizations of Pearl’s entailment in System Z and Lehmann’s lexicographic entailment, called Zλ- and lexλ-entailment, which are parameterized through a value λ ∈ [0,1] that describes the strength of the inheritance of purely probabilistic knowledge. In the special cases of λ = 0 and λ = 1, the notions of Zλ- and lexλ-entailment coincide with probabilistic generalizations of Pearl’s entailment in System Z and Lehmann’s lexicographic entailment that have been recently introduced by the author. We show (...) that the notions of Zλ- and lexλ-entailment have similar properties as their classical counterparts. In particular, they both satisfy the rationality postulates of System P and the property of Rational Monotonicity. Moreover, Zλ-entailment is weaker than lexλ-entailment, and both Zλ- and lexλ-entailment are proper generalizations of their classical counterparts. (shrink)

We present a propositional and a first-order logic for reasoning about higher-order upper and lower probabilities. We provide sound and complete axiomatizations for the logics and we prove decidability in the propositional case. Furthermore, we show that the introduced logics generalize some existing probability logics.