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  1. Not a New Gold Standard: Even Big Data Cannot Predict the Future.Kai Jäger - 2016 - Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society 28 (3-4):335-355.
    ABSTRACTMany scholars believe that the proliferation of large-scale datasets will spur scientific advancement and help us to predict the future using sophisticated statistical techniques. Indeed, a team of researchers achieved astonishing success using the world’s largest event dataset, produced by the icews project, to predict complex social outcomes such as civil wars and irregular government turnovers. However, the secret of their success lay in transforming epistemically difficult questions into easy ones. Forecasting the onset of civil wars becomes an easy task (...)
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  • Social Science and the Problem of Interpretation: A Pragmatic Dual(ist) Approach.Adam B. Lerner - 2020 - Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society 32 (1-3):124-144.
    ABSTRACT In Power Without Knowledge, Jeffrey Friedman contends that ideational complexity can stymie social-scientific understanding and prevent the reliable predictive knowledge required of a well-functioning technocracy. However, even this somewhat pessimistic outlook may understate the problem. Ideational complexity has both cognitive and phenomenal dimensions, each of which poses unique dilemmas. Further, due to its methodological individualism, Friedman’s vision may neglect emergent layers of knowledge produced through social interaction, creating yet another source of unknowns. Given these two factors, social science should (...)
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