abstract Even though much research has been devoted to studies of safety, the concept of safety is in itself under‐theorised, especially concerning its relation to epistemic uncertainty. In this paper we propose a conceptual analysis of safety. The paper explores the distinc‐tion between absolute and relative safety, as well as that between objective and subjective safety. Four potential dimensions of safety are discussed, viz. harm, probability, epistemic uncertainty, and control. The first three of these are used in the proposed definition (...) of safety, whereas it is argued that control should not be included in a reasonable definition of safety. It is shown that strictly speaking, an objective safety concept is not attainable. Instead, an intersubjective concept is proposed that brings us as close as possible to an objective concept. (shrink)

Although it has often been claimed that all the information contained in second‐order probabilities can be contained in first‐order probabilities, no practical recipe for the elimination of second‐order probabilities without loss of information seems to have been presented. Here, such an elimination method is introduced for repeatable events. However, its application comes at the price of losses in cognitive realism. In spite of their technical eliminability, second‐order probabilities are useful because they can provide models of important features of the world (...) that are cognitively more plausible than those that can be obtained with single‐level probabilities. (shrink)

For more than 10 years, Ulrich Beck has dominated discussion of risk issues in the social sciences. We argue that Beck's criticisms of the theory and practise of risk analysis are groundless. His understanding of what risk is is badly flawed. His attempt to identify risk and risk perception fails. He misunderstands and distorts the use of probability in risk analysis. His comments about the insurance industry show that he does not understand some of the basics of that industry. And (...) his assertions about the wrongness of allowing acceptable levels of exposure to toxic chemicals do not stand up to scrutiny. Key Words: Beck • risk analysis • risk perception • probability • insurance. (shrink)

Although it has often been claimed that all the information contained in second-order probabilities can be contained in first-order probabilities, no practical recipe for the elimination of second-order probabilities without loss of information seems to have been presented. Here, such an elimination method is introduced for repeatable events. However, its application comes at the price of losses in cognitive realism. In spite of their technical eliminability, second-order probabilities are useful because they can provide models of important features of the world (...) that are cognitively more plausible than those that can be obtained with single-level probabilities. (shrink)

The decision to accept or to reject an empirical hypothesis concerning the risks and hazards of a pesticide requires assessing the cost's of error if the wrong decision is taken. The assessment of such costs involves scientists in problems which are closely related to those which policy‐makers face in deciding what to do in view of the information provided by scientists. These problems include the unforeseeable effects of agricultural technologies, the assessments of costs and benefits, and the choice of decision (...) rule to use in policy formation. I conclude that the combined impact of these problems motivates the use of prudentially weighted decision rules in forming policies which regulate the use of pesticides, and it motivates the development of bio‐environmental alternatives to chemically based pest control policies. (shrink)