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  1. The Cultural Evolution of Games of Chance.Ze Hong - 2024 - Human Nature 35 (2):89-113.
    Chance-based gambling has been a recurrent cultural activity throughout history and across many diverse human societies. In this paper, I combine quantitative and qualitative data and present a cultural evolutionary framework to explain why the odds in games of chance in premodern China appeared “designed” to ensure a moderate yet favorable house advantage. This is especially intriguing since extensive research in the history of probability has shown that, prior to the development of probability theory, people had very limited understanding of (...)
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  • Chance Combinatorics: The Theory that History Forgot.John D. Norton - 2023 - Perspectives on Science 31 (6):771-810.
    Seventeenth-century “chance combinatorics” was a self-contained theory. It had an objective notion of chance derived from physical devices with chance properties, such as casts of dice, combinatorics to count chances and, to interpret their significance, a rule for converting these counts into fair wagers. It lacked a notion of chance as a measure of belief, a precise way to connect chance counts with frequencies and a way to compare chances across different games. These omissions were not needed for the theory’s (...)
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  • Lotteries, bookmaking and ancient randomizers: Local and global analyses of chance.John D. Norton - 2022 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 95 (C):108-117.
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