Predictivism asserts that novel confirmations carry special probative weight. Epistemic pluralism asserts that the judgments of agents (about, e.g., the probabilities of theories) carry epistemic import. In this paper, I propose a new theory of predictivism that is tailored to pluralistic evaluators of theories. I replace the orthodox notion of use-novelty with a notion of endorsement-novelty, and argue that the intuition that predictivism is true has two roots. I provide a detailed Bayesian rendering of this theory and argue that pluralistic (...) theory evaluation pervades scientific practice. I compare my account of predictivism with those of Maher and Worrall. Introduction Why construction is a red herring for pluralist evaluators The unvirtuous accommodator Virtuous endorsers and the two roots of predictivism The two roots in Bayesian terms: the priors and background beliefs of endorsers Who are the pluralist evaluators? Two contemporary theories of predictivism 7.1 Maher: Reliable methods of theory construction 7.2 Worrall: The confirmation of core ideas Conclusion. (shrink)

In October 1993, a survey of health care agency administrators was undertaken shortly after they had experienced two sudden reductions in public funding. The purpose of this investigation was to gain insight into the role of ethics in health administrator decision making. A mail questionnaire was designed for this purpose. Descriptive statistics and content analysis were used to summarize the data. Staff reductions and bed closures were the two most frequently reported mechanisms for addressing the funding reductions. Most administrators did (...) not believe that these changes would have a negative public impact. In contrast, the majority indicated that future changes in reaction to additional funding reductions would have a negative public impact. Approximately one-third of the administrators reported ethics to be an element of recent administrative decision making, and one-half could foresee that ethics would be important in the future if reductions continued. These findings are discussed in relation to ethics. Issues for additional research are outlined. (shrink)