As a promising Social Science Methodology, Structural/Mechanism Explanation (SME) retains the advantages of mechanism-based explanation (ME), particularly its focus on “identifying causal patterns from micro-level social phenomena.” It also acknowledging the role of “structure”—seen as “macro-level conditions”—in incentivizing or disincentivizing key mechanisms, thus proving valuable for forecasting their emergence and decline. This article explores the theory of SME and applies it to examine how a revitalized “Legalist political structure coupled with a Confucianist ideological structure” can forecast the mechanisms by which (...) China’s National Social Credit System disciplines and punishes the citizens. This is observed across domains of legislation, administration, judiciary, and propaganda. (shrink)