John organized a state lottery and his wife won the main prize. You may feel that the event of her winning wasn’t particularly random, but how would you argue that in a fair court of law? Traditional probability theory does not even have the notion of random events. Algorithmic information theory does, but it is not applicable to real-world scenarios like the lottery one. We attempt to rectify that.

L'article étudie diverses strates épistémiques de raisonnement stochastique à l'oeuvre dans l'économétrie actuelle et dans les méthodes économiques: (1) le niveau argumentatif; (2) le raisonnement fondé sur l'analogie avec les jeux de hasard; (3) les modèles basés sur le calcul analytique des probabilités, où le phénomène est tenu pour centré, son incertitude étant maîtrisée par un bruit blanc quant à sa fluctuation; (4) le calcul axiomatique. L'intrication de ces strates est observée. L'article appelle à un renforcement de la réflexion critique (...) à ce sujet parmi les spécialistes. Il introduit ce faisant le concept d'artefact cognitif stochastique. (shrink)

In this paper, we focus on the launch of the Great Soviet Encyclopedia, which was first published in 1925. We present the context of the launch and explain why it was closely connected to the period of the New Economic Policy. In the last section, we examine four articles about randomness and probability included in the first volumes of the encyclopedia in order to illustrate some debates from within the scientific scene in the USSR during the 1920s.