The more you think about it, the more baffling Newcomb's Problem becomes. To most people, at first it is obvious which solution is correct, but their confidence can be eroded easily. Only a puzzled few are torn between the two right from the start, and for years so was I. But at last, thanks to a certain metaargument, one solution came to seem obvious to me. And yet, imagining myself actually faced with Newcomb's choice, I started to worry that I (...) might experience just enough last-minute ambivalence to unsettle my confidence in that argument. Fortunately, I have found a strategy to ensure making the right choice when the chips are down.Not only is Newcomb's Problem puzzling in its own right, it is philosophically significant. The appeal of both solutions reflects a conflict between two plausible conceptions of rational choice. In making a decision, should one consider all of its probabilistic consequences or only its causal consequences? Each conception has its supporters, but some philosophers find them both defensible and see no hope of resolving the conflict. I think the conflict can be resolved, at least in the context of Newcomb's Problem, by properly assessing the relevant counterfactual conditionals. (shrink)

In this paper I explore a version of standard (expected utility) decision theory in which the probability parameter is interpreted as an objective chance believed by agents to obtain and values of this parameter are fixed by indicative conditionals linking possible actions with possible outcomes. After reviewing some recent developments centering on the common-cause counterexamples to the standard approach, I introduce and briefly discuss the key notions in my own approach. (This approach has essentially the same results as the causal (...) approach in common-cause cases.) I then discuss the Rule of Dominance and find, in the context of the present proposal, that it cannot serve as an independent source of action justification. Turning next to Newcomb''s Problem, I argue that the much discussed issue of back-tracking counterfactuals is something of a red herring for decision theory. Once the twin distractions of back-tracking counterfactuals and Dominance Reasoning are set aside the 1-box solution emerges as a natural consequence of the present proposal. It is of interest that this proposal agrees with the causal approach in the standard common-cause examples and the expected-utility approach in the Newcomb case: one can be smart and rich and keep on smoking. (shrink)

En el presente trabajo se realiza una exposición breve del punto de vista filosófico de la teoría de la decisión, profundizando específicamente en el trabajo que propone David Lewis al respecto. Este autor sustenta que la teoría de la decisión puede sostenerse sobre bases causales o no causales, siendo la Teoría Causal de la Decisión un modelo necesario para el análisis de este tipo de problemas. En casos particulares como en la Paradoja de Newcomb, las teorías no causales de la (...) decisión serían insuficientes. A continuación se presentarán brevemente las nociones básicas del análisis de decisiones, para en segundo lugar explicar en detalle algunos aspectos de la Paradoja deNewcomb. Finalmente se presentan las tesis principales de la teoría de Lewis y algunas posibles objeciones de la misma. -/- In this work a brief account of the philosophical point of view on decision theory is shown by studying David Lewis’s work in particular. This author states that a theory of decision can have either causal or non causal grounds and that causal decision theory is a necessary model for the analysis of this kind ofproblems. In particular cases like Newcomb’s Paradox, non causal decision theories would be insufficient. I will show some basic notions of decision analysis, in order to explain in detail some aspects of Newcomb’s Paradox. Finally, the fundamental theses of Lewis’s Theory and some possible objections are presented. (shrink)