We investigate the discrete (finite) case of the Popper–Renyi theory of conditional probability, introducing discrete conditional probabilistic models for knowledge and conditional belief, and comparing them with the more standard plausibility models. We also consider a related notion, that of safe belief, which is a weak (non-negatively introspective) type of “knowledge”. We develop a probabilistic version of this concept (“degree of safety”) and we analyze its role in games. We completely axiomatize the logic of conditional belief, knowledge and safe belief (...) over conditional probabilistic models. We develop a theory of probabilistic dynamic belief revision, introducing probabilistic “action models” and proposing a notion of probabilistic update product, that comes together with appropriate reduction laws. (shrink)

This is an editorial introduction to a special issue of Acta Analytica on epistemic luck.

This paper critically explores Timothy Williamson’s view of evidence, and it does so in light of the problem of epistemic luck. Williamson’s view of evidence is, of course, a crucially important aspect of his novel and influential “knowledge-first” epistemological project. Notoriously, one crucial thesis of this project is that one’s evidence is equivalent to what one knows. This has come to be known as the E = K thesis. This paper specifically addresses Williamson’s knowledge-first epistemology and the E = K (...) thesis in the context of anti-luck epistemology and the idea that knowledge is factive. Williamson’s views on these matters are worth investigating in some detail because he subscribes to a well-worked out anti-luck view of knowledge that incorporates what is perhaps the most common anti-luck condition. But this paper is also of more general importance because the critique of Williamson’s views on these matters reveals some important things about the nature of evidence and evidence is one of the most fundamental concepts in epistemology. (shrink)

This chapter addresses the question of what makes expressions meaningful according to the conception of meaning offered by Donald Davidson. It addresses this question by reflecting on Kathrin Glüer’s recent response to it. It argues that Glüer misconstrues both the evidence for meaning that the radical interpreter must rely on and the way in which the principle of charity must be deployed. The articulation of the correct construal of the evidence and the principle reveals the thoroughly non-reductionist aspect of Davidson’s (...) conception of meaning. This aspect becomes even clearer in his later work, through the articulation of the triangulation argument. I try to show how this argument, which is reconstructed in accordance with Claudine Verheggen’s interpretation of it, helps answer the initial question. The question whether the conception has the resources to account for the objectivity of meaning is briefly discussed. (shrink)

En la epistemología moderna, el falibilismo es una vía media entre el dogmatismo y el escepticismo. Su origen histórico se encuentra en una rama de la antigua escuela del escepticismo académico. Ya que la diferencia entre las formas fuerte y débil del falibilismo, así como la distinción entre probabilidad epistémica y verosimilitud, sólo han sido comprendidas en las últimas dos décadas, no podemos esperar encontrar formulaciones claras de dichas doctrinas entre los filósofos griegos y romanos. Pero hemos mostrado que las (...) dos ideas centrales del falibilismo –el grado de certeza y el grado de cercanía a la verdad– están presentes en la tradición escéptica al menos desde los tiempos de Cicerón. (shrink)

Pričujoči tekst analizira možnost utemeljitve epistemske teorije, ki bo zagotavljala upravičene in upravičljive kriterije za to, kdaj je določeno prepričanje znanje. Izhodišče nam predstavlja Goldmanovo teorijo reliabilnosti, kjer je določeno prepričanje epistemsko upravičeno le, če je dobljeno na osnovi procesov in mehanizmov, ki so zanesljivi. Problem tako zastavljene teorije upravičbe je dejstvo, daje zelo težko določiti, kateri so procesi, ki so zanesljivi. Pri tem je še posebej vprašljivo Goldmanovo zatrjevanje, da so zanesljivi lahko le tipi procesov, da pa posamezni primerki (...) procesov lahko proizvedejo le posamezna prepričanja, ki pa so ali resnična ali neresnična. Nejasnost je predvsem v tem, ker enostavno ne obstaja dovolj zanesljiv proces, mehanizem, ki bi nam vnaprej omogočil ocenjevanje posameznega prepričanja. V tej zvezi ne pomaga niti Goldmanovo razlikovanje med ohlapno in strogo upravičbo, ker, če sprejmemo ohlapno upravičbo kot utemeljeno, potem je dana možnost za sprejetje tudi nezanesljivih procesov in mehanizmov, kar pa pomeni, daje stroga upravičba zgolj nekaj ekstravagantnega. Možen izhod iz te zagate predstavlja ločevanje nivoja izvornih kognitivnih procesov in nivoja pridobljenih metod, postopkov..., vendar se izkaže, da tudi to ni rešitev. Zato predlagamo naslednjo opredelitev teorije upravičbe: Prepričanje p, ki ga ima oseba S v t, je upravičeno čče je i primerek tipa procesa, ki bi ga najboljša kognitivna znanost klasificirala kot zanesljivega. (shrink)