In a short paper, Smilansky (2022) provides an argument in favor of the belief in social progress. He considers the "probability of losing a child" to be a pivotal element among various criteria to be assessed in order to evaluate human progress and as this probability has decreased considerably in the modern era, he evaluates humanity today in a better situation than the previous generations. In this paper, I criticize Smilansky's argument and try to show that his account of the (...) difference between historical periods is superficial. (shrink)