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  1. Reasoning and choice in the Monty Hall Dilemma (MHD): implications for improving Bayesian reasoning.Elisabet Tubau, David Aguilar-Lleyda & Eric D. Johnson - 2015 - Frontiers in Psychology 6:133474.
    The Monty Hall Dilemma (MHD) is a two-step decision problem involving counterintuitive conditional probabilities. The first choice is made among three equally probable options, whereas the second choice takes place after the elimination of one of the non-selected options which does not hide the prize. Differing from most Bayesian problems, statistical information in the MHD has to be inferred, either by learning outcome probabilities or by reasoning from the presented sequence of events. This often leads to suboptimal decisions and erroneous (...)
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  • A modified Monty Hall problem.Wei James Chen & Joseph Tao-yi Wang - 2020 - Theory and Decision 89 (2):151-156.
    We conduct a laboratory experiment using the Monty Hall problem to study how simplified examples improve learning behavior and correct irrational choices in probabilistic situations. In particular, we show that after experiencing a simplified version of the MHP, subjects perform better in the MHP, compared to the control group who only experienced the 3-door version. Our results suggest that simplified examples strongly induces learning.
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  • A randomised Monty Hall experiment: The positive effect of conditional frequency feedback.Lore Saenen, Wim Van Dooren & Patrick Onghena - 2015 - Thinking and Reasoning 21 (2):176-192.
    The Monty Hall dilemma is a notorious probability problem with a counterintuitive solution. There is a strong tendency to stay with the initial choice, despite the fact that switching doubles the probability of winning. The current randomised experiment investigates whether feedback in a series of trials improves behavioural performance on the MHD and increases the level of understanding of the problem. Feedback was either conditional or non-conditional, and was given either in frequency format or in percentage format. Results show that (...)
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