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  1. Ambiguous life expectancy and the demand for annuities.Hippolyte D’Albis & Emmanuel Thibault - 2018 - Theory and Decision 85 (3-4):303-319.
    In this paper, ambiguity aversion to uncertain survival probabilities is introduced in a static life-cycle model with a bequest motive to study the optimal demand for annuities. Provided that annuities’ return is sufficiently large, and notably when it is fair, positive annuitization is known to be the optimal strategy of ambiguity neutral individuals. Conversely, we show that the demand for annuities decreases with ambiguity aversion and that there exists a finite degree of aversion above which the demand is non-positive: the (...)
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  • Communicating uncertainty about facts, numbers, and science.Anne Marthe van der Bles, Sander van der Linden, Alexandra L. J. Freeman, James Mitchell, Ana Beatriz Galvão, Lisa Zaval & David Spiegelhalter - 2019 - Royal Society Open Science 6 (5).
    Uncertainty is an inherent part of knowledge, and yet in an era of contested expertise, many shy away from openly communicating their uncertainty about what they know, fearful of their audience’s reaction. But what effect does communication of such epistemic uncertainty have? Empirical research is widely scattered across many disciplines. This interdisciplinary review structures and summarises current practice and research across domains, combining a statistical and psychological perspective. This informs a framework for uncertainty communication in which we identify three objects (...)
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