Research in the fields of complex problem solving (CPS) and dynamic decision making using microworlds has been mainly conducted in Western industrialized countries. This study analyzes the CPS process by investigating thinking‐aloud protocols in five countries. Participants were 511 students from Brazil, Germany, India, the Philippines, and the United States who worked on two microworlds. On the basis of cultural‐psychological theories, specific cross‐national differences in CPS strategies were hypothesized. Following theories of situatedness of cognition, hypotheses about the specific frequency of (...) problem‐solving strategies in the two microworlds were developed. Results of the verbal protocols showed (a) modification of the theoretical CPS model, (b) task dependence of CPS strategies, and (c) cross‐national differences in CPS strategies. Participants’ CPS processes were particularly influenced by country‐specific problem‐solving strategies. (shrink)

Using the Chinese Ring Puzzle (Kotovsky & Simon, Citation1990; P. J. Reber & Kotovsky, Citation1997), we studied the effect on rule discovery of having to plan actions or not in order to reach a goal state. This was done by asking participants to predict legal moves as in implicit learning tasks (Experiment 1) and by asking participants to make legal moves as in problem-solving tasks (Experiment 2). Our hypothesis was that having a specific goal state to reach has a dual (...) effect on rule discovery. The first effect is positive and related to feedback from moves done in order to attain the goal: generalising the results of action and associating them to the conditions in which they were obtained allows discovery of the rule and learning it. The second effect is negative. In attempting to reach a specific goal, participants first tend to reduce the distance that separates the current state from the goal state (hill climbing) and so neglect the kind of exploration that facilitates rule and procedure discovery because this would seem to be a detour from the goal. Results show that having to plan actions improved performance in implicit learning tasks (Experiment 1), yet it impaired performance in problem-solving tasks (Experiment 2). Although implicit learning and problem solving are based on rule discovery, and entail noticing regularities in the material, in both cases, rule discovery processes appear to be task-dependent. (shrink)

The term conceptual simulation refers to a type of everyday reasoning strategy commonly called “what if” reasoning. It has been suggested in a number of contexts that this type of reasoning plays an important role in scientific discovery; however, little direct evidence exists to support this claim. This article proposes that conceptual simulation is likely to be used in situations of informational uncertainty, and may be used to help scientists resolve that uncertainty. We conducted two studies to investigate the relationship (...) between conceptual simulation and informational uncertainty. Study 1 was an in vivo study of expert scientists; the results suggest that scientists do use conceptual simulation in situations of informational uncertainty, and that they use conceptual simulation to make inferences from their data using the analogical reasoning process of alignment by similarity detection. Study 2 experimentally manipulated experts' level of uncertainty and provides further support for the hypothesis that conceptual simulation is more likely to be used in situations of informational uncertainty. Finally, we discuss the relationship between conceptual simulation and other types of reasoning using qualitative mental models. (shrink)

Multiple goals balancing is an important but not yet fully validated dimension of complex problem solving (CPS). The present study used process data to explore how solvers clarify goals, set priorities, and balance conflicting goals. We extracted behavioral indicators of goal pursuit from the log data of 3,201 students on the third subtask of the “Ticket” task in the PISA 2012 CPS test. Cluster analysis was used to identify 10 groups that varied in goal pursuit behavior. Logistics and least-squares regression (...) analysis were used to explore how goal pursuit affected task scores and CPS proficiency. The results showed that competent solvers clarified goals and weighed priorities more effectively. They also made trade-offs between conflicting goals. The importance of theoretically-driven log data analysis and coping strategies in the face of multiple goals conflict scenarios was discussed. (shrink)

This article assesses how people reason with categories whose features are related in causal cycles. Whereas models based on causal graphical models have enjoyed success modeling category-based judgments as well as a number of other cognitive phenomena, CGMs are only able to represent causal structures that are acyclic. A number of new formalisms that allow cycles are introduced and evaluated. Dynamic Bayesian networks represent cycles by unfolding them over time. Chain graphs augment CGMs by allowing the presence of undirected links (...) that model feedback relations between variables. Unfolded chain graphs are chain graphs that unfold over time. An existing model of causal cycles is also evaluated. Four experiments in which subjects reason about categories with cyclically related features provided evidence against DBNs and alpha centrality and for the two types of chain graphs. Chain graphs—a mechanism for representing the equilibrium distribution of a dynamic system—may thus be good candidates for modeling how people reason causally with complex systems. Applications of chain graphs to areas of cognition other than category-based judgments are discussed. (shrink)

The present study discusses findings that replicate and extend the original work of Burns and Vollmeyer (2002), which showed that performance in problem solving tasks was more accurate when people were engaged in a non-specific goal than in a specific goal. The main innovation here was to examine the goal specificity effect under both observation-based and conventional action-based learning conditions. The findings show that goal specificity affects the accuracy of problem solving in the same way, both when the learning stage (...) of the task is observationbased and when it is action-based. Additionally, the findings show that, when instructions do not promote goal specificity, observation-based problem solving is as effective as action-based problem solving. (shrink)

This study examined whether experience with different computer-based complex problem situations would improve complex problem solving competence in an unknown problem situation. Therefore, university students took part in a control group study. They were trained in five different complex problem situations for up to 7 hr, and their performance was tested in a sixth complex problem situation. The data analyses revealed that the training influenced the CPS process of knowledge acquisition. However, the CPS process of knowledge application was not impacted (...) by experience with other problem situations. Implications for the concept of CPS as a trainable competence as well as the training of CPS in general are discussed. (shrink)

Talents that selectively facilitate the acquisition of high levels of skill are said to be present in some children but not others. The evidence for this includes biological correlates of specific abilities, certain rare abilities in autistic savants, and the seemingly spontaneous emergence of exceptional abilities in young children, but there is also contrary evidence indicating an absence of early precursors of high skill levels. An analysis of positive and negative evidence and arguments suggests that differences in early experiences, preferences, (...) opportunities, habits, training, and practice are the real determinants of excellence. Key Words: exceptional ability; expertise; gift; innate capacity; music; potential; prodigy; specific ability; talent. (shrink)

The current study had three goals: to investigate strategies, tactics, and errors as predictors of success and failure under uncertainty following the dynamic decision making and complex problem solving framework; to use observation and to examine its reliability and potential as a data collection method when using microworlds; and to investigate the applicability and validity of a microworld developed in the West, to an Asian sample. One hundred three participants in the Philippines took the role of fire chief in the (...) microworld WINFIRE. Their strategies, tactics, and errors were observed and coded by experimenters as they worked individually on the simulation twice. Results showed that DDM strategies, tactics, and errors predicted success and failure in WINFIRE, and strategies and tactics that led to success increased while errors decreased over time; strategies, tactics, and errors can be validly assessed through observation by experimenters, specifically that two types of decision makers were identified: the active, flexible, and big picture planners and the slow or cautious, and singlefocused decision makers; these findings together with participants’ survey ratings speak for the applicability of the microworld in an East Asian sample and for its validity. Findings are potentially relevant for experts and for training programs, highlighting the benefits of virtual environments during DDM. (shrink)

Many situations require people to acquire knowledge about, and learn how to control, complex dynamic systems of inter-connected variables. Numerous studies have found that most problem solvers are unable to acquire complete knowledge of the underlying structure of a system through an unguided exploration of the system variables; additional instruction or guidance is required. This paper examines whether providing structural information following an unguided exploration also improves control performance, and the extent to which any improvements are moderated by problem solvers’ (...) fluid intelligence. A sample of 98 individuals attempted to discover the underlying structure of a computer-simulated complex dynamic system. After initially controlling the system with their limited knowledge, half of the sample received guidance concerning the actual underlying structure of the system. All participants then controlled the system again. In contrast to the results of previous studies, guidance did result in immediate improvements in control performance. Fluid intelligence moderated the extent to which problem solvers benefited from structural information. These results indicate that guidance in the form of structural information is critical in promoting knowledge and control over complex and dynamic systems. (shrink)

With the advent of computers in the experimental labs, dynamic systems have become a new tool for research on problem solving and decision making. A short review of this research is given and the main features of these systems (connectivity and dynamics) are illustrated. To allow systematic approaches to the influential variables in this area, two formal frameworks (linear structural equations and finite state automata) are presented. Besides the formal background, the article sets out how the task demands of system (...) identification and system control can be realised in these environments, and how psychometrically acceptable dependent variables can be derived. (shrink)