This heuristic article introduces a generalization of the idea of drawing colored balls from an urn so as to allow mutually incompatible experiments to be represented, thereby providing a device for thinking about quantum logic and other non-classical statistical situations in a concrete way. Such models have proven valuable in generating examples and counterexamples and in making abstract definitions in quantum logic seem more intuitive.

Quantum Mechanics can be viewed as a linear dynamical theory having a familiar mathematical framework but a mysterious probabilistic interpretation, or as a probabilistic theory having a familiar interpretation but a mysterious formal framework. These points of view are usually taken to be somewhat in tension with one another. The first has generated a vast literature aiming at a “realistic” and “collapse-free” interpretation of quantum mechanics that will account for its statistical predictions. The second has generated an at least equally (...) large literature aiming to derive, or at any rate motivate, the formal structure of quantum theory in probabilistically intelligible terms. In this paper I explore, in a preliminary way, the possibility that these two programmes have something to offer one another. In particular, I show that a version of the measurement problem occurs in essentially any non-classical probabilistic theory, and ask to what extent various interpretations of quantum mechanics continue to make sense in such a general setting. I make a start on answering this question in the case of a rudimentary version of the Everett interpretation. (shrink)