An Expected Value Approach to the Dual-Use Problem

In Selgelid Michael & Rappert Brian (eds.), On the Dual Uses of Science and Ethics. Australian National University Press (2013)
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Abstract

In this chapter I examine how expected-value theory might inform responses to what I call the dual-use problem. I begin by defining that problem. I then outline a procedure, which invokes expected-value theory, for tackling it. I first illustrate the procedure with the aid of a simplified schematic example of a dual-use problem, and then describe how it might also guide responses to more complex real-world cases. I outline some attractive features of the procedure. Finally, I consider whether and how the procedure might be amended to accommodate various criticisms of it.

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Thomas Douglas
University of Oxford

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