How to Save Pascal (and Ourselves) From the Mugger

Dialogue:1-17 (forthcoming)
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Abstract

In this article, we re-examine Pascal’s Mugging, and argue that it is a deeper problem than the St. Petersburg paradox. We offer a way out that is consistent with classical decision theory. Specifically, we propose a “many muggers” response analogous to the “many gods” objection to Pascal’s Wager. When a very tiny probability of a great reward becomes a salient outcome of a choice, such as in the offer of the mugger, it can be discounted on the condition that there are other symmetric, non-salient rewards that one may receive if one chooses otherwise.

Author Profiles

Avram Hiller
Portland State University
Ali Hasan
University of Iowa

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2023-11-30

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