The Evidentialist's Wager

Journal of Philosophy 118 (6):320-342 (2021)
Download Edit this record How to cite View on PhilPapers
Abstract
Suppose that an altruistic agent who is uncertain between evidential and causal decision theory finds herself in a situation where these theories give conflicting verdicts. We argue that even if she has significantly higher credence in CDT, she should nevertheless act in accordance with EDT. First, we claim that the appropriate response to normative uncertainty is to hedge one's bets. That is, if the stakes are much higher on one theory than another, and the credences you assign to each of these theories are not very different, then it is appropriate to choose the option that performs best on the high-stakes theory. Second, we show that, given the assumption of altruism, the existence of correlated decision makers will increase the stakes for EDT but leave the stakes for CDT unaffected. Together these two claims imply that whenever there are sufficiently many correlated agents, the appropriate response is to act in accordance with EDT.
Keywords
No keywords specified (fix it)
PhilPapers/Archive ID
MACTEW-2
Upload history
Archival date: 2020-09-09
View other versions
Added to PP index
2020-09-09

Total views
328 ( #24,047 of 71,140 )

Recent downloads (6 months)
36 ( #23,034 of 71,140 )

How can I increase my downloads?

Downloads since first upload
This graph includes both downloads from PhilArchive and clicks on external links on PhilPapers.