Abstract

Title: Understanding the Trade War Through the Lens of Angelito Malicse’s Universal Formula Author: Angelito Malicse Date: April 2025 Abstract This essay presents a systemic analysis of trade wars using Angelito Malicse’s universal formula, which consists of the Law of Karma (System Integrity), the Law of Balance in Nature, and the Law of Feedback (Interacting Conscious Minds). By examining historical and current global trade conflicts—especially the U.S.-China trade war—this paper demonstrates how trade wars violate these natural laws, leading to economic dysfunction and global instability. Real-world examples are incorporated to support each principle, and a holistic, feasible solution is proposed based on these laws. I. The Law of Karma: System Integrity and the Cause-Effect Chain Malicse’s Law of Karma emphasizes that all systems must be free from defects to function properly. When systemic flaws are introduced—such as tariffs or protectionist policies—they disrupt the chain of cause and effect and generate harm across the system. Real-World Example: U.S. Tariffs on Chinese Goods (2018–2020) In 2018, the United States imposed tariffs on more than $350 billion worth of Chinese goods, citing intellectual property theft and trade imbalances (Bown, 2021). In retaliation, China placed tariffs on over $100 billion of American exports, including agricultural products. U.S. farmers, particularly soybean producers, saw their exports to China plummet, resulting in $28 billion in government bailouts (USDA, 2020). This chain of consequences shows a flawed trade policy triggering a cascade of effects—economic stress, rising prices, and disrupted industries—mirroring the law of karma: defects in the system create systemic suffering. II. The Law of Balance in Nature This law affirms that all sustainable systems maintain equilibrium. Trade wars, by introducing inequality and dominance, disrupt the natural flow of interdependent trade relationships. Real-World Example: Impact on Global Supply Chains During the trade war, multinational companies like Apple and General Motors were forced to reevaluate their global supply chains. Apple considered shifting production from China to India and Vietnam to avoid tariffs, which in turn disrupted local economies and labor systems that had been finely balanced over decades (Reuters, 2019). Similarly, General Motors experienced declining profits due to higher costs on imported parts, showing that the economic ecosystem had been destabilized. The imbalance not only hurt the U.S. and China but also affected global economies dependent on trade harmony. Secondary Example: Trade War and Developing Countries The trade war also diverted supply chains to other developing countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, and Mexico. While this may seem beneficial, the sudden influx of demand overwhelmed local infrastructure and labor markets, leading to short-term inflation and labor exploitation—again demonstrating how artificial economic shocks disturb natural balance. III. The Law of Feedback: Interacting Conscious Minds Malicse’s third law focuses on the role of feedback between conscious agents—nations, corporations, and leaders. When feedback mechanisms break down, miscommunication escalates conflict rather than resolving it. Real-World Example: Breakdown in U.S.-China Diplomatic Channels Despite multiple negotiation rounds between 2018 and 2020, including talks led by U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, both sides failed to reach a stable long-term agreement. Each round of talks ended in mutual distrust and further tariffs. Instead of using feedback for cooperative adjustment, both sides used it to justify further retaliation, reinforcing animosity and misunderstanding (Friedberg, 2020). Secondary Example: WTO Dispute Resolution System Undermined The World Trade Organization’s (WTO) Appellate Body—a global feedback mechanism for settling trade disputes—was weakened during the trade war. The U.S. blocked appointments to the panel, rendering it non-functional. Without this neutral feedback mechanism, countries were left to resolve conflicts unilaterally, often through aggressive policy instead of peaceful negotiation. IV. A Feasible Solution Based on the Universal Formula To resolve and prevent future trade wars, a holistic and systemic approach is needed—one aligned with the universal laws of nature. 1. Systemic Economic Reforms (Law of Karma) Nations must ensure that trade systems are fair, transparent, and free from systemic defects such as corruption, unfair subsidies, and non-tariff barriers. This includes revamping domestic economic policies to avoid excessive reliance on protectionism. The creation of an international audit mechanism (potentially within the WTO or IMF) could help assess the integrity of national trade policies and encourage global system health. 2. Sustainable Trade Practices (Law of Balance) Trade agreements should include environmental sustainability, labor rights, and technological equity to maintain balance not only among economies but also between humanity and nature. For instance, “Green Trade Agreements” could reward countries for reducing carbon footprints in manufacturing while promoting fair access to resources and innovation. 3. Global Educational and Diplomatic Feedback Systems (Law of Feedback) The long-term solution lies in education. Nations should incorporate systems thinking and global ethics into leadership development, embedding Malicse’s formula into academic curricula. Diplomatically, global forums like the G20, UNCTAD, and a reformed WTO must be empowered to foster transparent feedback and cooperation rather than conflict. Conclusion Trade wars are not isolated events—they are systemic failures arising from violations of nature’s laws. Angelito Malicse’s universal formula offers a clear framework for understanding these failures and guiding their resolution. By recognizing that economic systems are interconnected, dynamic, and governed by natural balance and feedback, leaders can move away from conflict and toward cooperation. The path forward is not protectionism but universal understanding, grounded in nature, balance, and system integrity. References Bown, C. P. (2021). The US-China Trade War: Tariffs, Retaliation, and the Implications for Global Trade. Peterson Institute for International Economics. Friedberg, A. L. (2020). Getting China Wrong. Polity Press. International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2019). World Economic Outlook, October 2019: Global Manufacturing Downturn, Rising Trade Barriers. Malicse, A. (2023). The Universal Formula to Solve the Problem of Free Will. [Unpublished manuscript]. Reuters. (2019). Apple considers moving iPhone production out of China. United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). (2020). Trade Aid Package for Farmers: Market Facilitation Program.