Metodološke osnove naučnog predvidjanja u istoriji (Methodological grounds for scientific predicting in history)

Zbornik Matice Srpske Za Drustvene Nauke 89:43-64 (1989)
  Copy   BIBTEX

Abstract

In the opening lines of this article it is claimed that history is a discipline taking role as part of unique body of science. The concept of scientific rationality is presented as the criterion of demarcation between science and pseudoscience. From this statement as a starting point, it follows that the methodological grounds for scientific predictions are common for all scientific disciplines. Different aspects of scientific predicting are critically examined: thesis of symmetry, determinism and predictability, indeterminism and predictability, reflexivity of predictions, prediction of novelty and progress, predictions in relation to the time of their uttering, the prediction sketch, truthfulness and regularity in implying prediction, and predictability of human actions. In the concluding section, the author admits of the possibility of constructing the theory of history, opposed to eschatological philosophy of history, as a predictive theory with a scientific basis and a theory whose specifications limit its misuse in practice.

Author's Profile

Vladimir Marko
Comenius University

Analytics

Added to PP
2022-05-02

Downloads
154 (#88,559)

6 months
63 (#89,068)

Historical graph of downloads since first upload
This graph includes both downloads from PhilArchive and clicks on external links on PhilPapers.
How can I increase my downloads?