In Favor of Logarithmic Scoring

Philosophy of Science 86 (2):286-303 (2019)
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Abstract

Shuford, Albert and Massengill proved, a half century ago, that the logarithmic scoring rule is the only proper measure of inaccuracy determined by a differentiable function of probability assigned the actual cell of a scored partition. In spite of this, the log rule has gained less traction in applied disciplines and among formal epistemologists that one might expect. In this paper we show that the differentiability criterion in the Shuford et. al. result is unnecessary and use the resulting simplified characterization of the logarithmic rule to give novel arguments in favor of it.

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Randall G. McCutcheon
University of Memphis

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