Future progress in artificial intelligence: A survey of expert opinion

In Vincent Müller (ed.), Fundamental Issues of Artificial Intelligence. Springer. pp. 553-571 (2016)
Download Edit this record How to cite View on PhilPapers
Abstract
There is, in some quarters, concern about high–level machine intelligence and superintelligent AI coming up in a few decades, bringing with it significant risks for humanity. In other quarters, these issues are ignored or considered science fiction. We wanted to clarify what the distribution of opinions actually is, what probability the best experts currently assign to high–level machine intelligence coming up within a particular time–frame, which risks they see with that development, and how fast they see these developing. We thus designed a brief questionnaire and distributed it to four groups of experts in 2012/2013. The median estimate of respondents was for a one in two chance that high-level machine intelligence will be developed around 2040-2050, rising to a nine in ten chance by 2075. Experts expect that systems will move on to superintelligence in less than 30 years thereafter. They estimate the chance is about one in three that this development turns out to be ‘bad’ or ‘extremely bad’ for humanity.
Reprint years
2016
PhilPapers/Archive ID
MLLFPI
Revision history
First archival date: 2015-11-06
Latest version: 4 (2016-03-05)
View upload history
References found in this work BETA

No references found.

Add more references

Citations of this work BETA

No citations found.

Add more citations

Added to PP index
2015-11-06

Total views
11,754 ( #42 of 38,021 )

Recent downloads (6 months)
2,633 ( #60 of 38,021 )

How can I increase my downloads?

Monthly downloads since first upload
This graph includes both downloads from PhilArchive and clicks to external links.