How to predict future duration from present age

Philosophical Quarterly 56 (222):16-38 (2006)
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Abstract
The physicist J. Richard Gott has given an argument which, if good, allows one to make accurate predictions for the future longevity of a process, based solely on its present age. We show that there are problems with some of the details of Gott's argument, but we defend the core thesis: in many circumstances, the greater the present age of a process, the more likely a longer future duration
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2006
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Archival date: 2018-05-08
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Minimizing Inaccuracy for Self-Locating Beliefs.Kierland, Brian & Monton, Bradley

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