Chancy Modus Ponens

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Chancy modus ponens is the following inference scheme: ‘ probably φ ’, ‘if φ, then ψ’, therefore, ‘probably ψ ’. I argue that Chancy modus ponens is invalid in general. I further argue that the invalidity of Chancy modus ponens sheds new light on the alleged counterexample to modus ponens presented by McGee. I close by observing that, although Chancy modus ponens is invalid in general, we can recover a restricted sense in which this scheme of inference is valid.
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First archival date: 2019-07-23
Latest version: 2 (2019-08-27)
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Epistemic Modals.Seth Yalcin - 2007 - Mind 116 (464):983-1026.
Ifs and Oughts.Kolodny, Niko & MacFarlane, John

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