Expert Judgment for Climate Change Adaptation

Philosophy of Science 83 (5):1110-1121 (2016)
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Climate change adaptation is largely a local matter, and adaptation planning can benefit from local climate change projections. Such projections are typically generated by accepting climate model outputs in a relatively uncritical way. We argue, based on the IPCC’s treatment of model outputs from the CMIP5 ensemble, that this approach is unwarranted and that subjective expert judgment should play a central role in the provision of local climate change projections intended to support decision-making.
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First archival date: 2016-01-14
Latest version: 3 (2016-01-16)
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Laplace’s Demon and the Adventures of His Apprentices.Frigg, Roman; Bradley, Seamus; Du, Hailiang & Smith, Leonard A.
The Myopia of Imperfect Climate Models: The Case of UKCP09.Frigg, Roman; Smith, Leonard A. & Stainforth, David A.

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