Abstract
Climate change adaptation is largely a local matter, and adaptation
planning can benefit from local climate change projections. Such projections are
typically generated by accepting climate model outputs in a relatively uncritical way.
We argue, based on the IPCC’s treatment of model outputs from the CMIP5
ensemble, that this approach is unwarranted and that subjective expert judgment
should play a central role in the provision of local climate change projections intended
to support decision-making.