Keynes, Uncertainty and Interest Rates

Cambridge Journal of Economics 26 (1):47-62 (2002)
  Copy   BIBTEX

Abstract

Uncertainty plays an important role in The General Theory, particularly in the theory of interest rates. Keynes did not provide a theory of uncertainty, but he did make some enlightening remarks about the direction he thought such a theory should take. I argue that some modern innovations in the theory of probability allow us to build a theory which captures these Keynesian insights. If this is the right theory, however, uncertainty cannot carry its weight in Keynes’s arguments. This does not mean that the conclusions of these arguments are necessarily mistaken; in their best formulation they may succeed with merely an appeal to risk.

Author's Profile

Brian Weatherson
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

Analytics

Added to PP
2009-01-28

Downloads
549 (#28,120)

6 months
115 (#29,695)

Historical graph of downloads since first upload
This graph includes both downloads from PhilArchive and clicks on external links on PhilPapers.
How can I increase my downloads?