Moving Beyond Sets of Probabilities

Statistical Science 36 (2):201--204 (2021)
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The theory of lower previsions is designed around the principles of coherence and sure-loss avoidance, thus steers clear of all the updating anomalies highlighted in Gong and Meng's "Judicious Judgment Meets Unsettling Updating: Dilation, Sure Loss, and Simpson's Paradox" except dilation. In fact, the traditional problem with the theory of imprecise probability is that coherent inference is too complicated rather than unsettling. Progress has been made simplifying coherent inference by demoting sets of probabilities from fundamental building blocks to secondary representations that are derived or discarded as needed.
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First archival date: 2021-03-21
Latest version: 2 (2021-04-09)
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