In this follow-up study of an earlier investigation (Marjoribanks, 2002a), relationships were examined between adolescents' educational aspirations and young adults' educational attainment, after taking into account measures of family background, individual characteristics and proximal learning settings. Data were collected as part of a longitudinal survey of Australian youth (3772 females and 3476 males). The findings from the two analyses suggest that: (a) family background, individual characteristics and proximal learning settings combine to have large associations with adolescents' aspirations, and these aspirations (...) have the largest relationship with young adults' eventual educational attainment; and (b) there are ethnic group differences in the linear and curvilinear nature of relationships involving measures of individual characteristics, adolescents' educational aspirations and young adults' educational attainment. An 'aspiration 2 attainment 2 background' model is proposed to examine the ongoing and different interactions between aspirations and academic outcomes for students from various family backgrounds. (shrink)