Considers that intuitive predictions follow a judgmental heuristic-representativeness. By this heuristic, people predict the outcome that appears most representative of the evidence. Consequently, intuitive predictions are insensitive to the reliability of the evidence or to the prior probability of the outcome, in violation of the logic of statistical prediction. The hypothesis that people predict by representativeness was supported in a series of studies with both naive and sophisticated university students. The ranking of outcomes by likelihood coincided with the ranking by (...) representativeness, and Ss erroneously predicted rare events and extreme values if these happened to be representative. The experience of unjustified confidence in predictions and the prevalence of fallacious intuitions concerning statistical regression are traced to the representativeness heuristic. (shrink)

La « féminisation de la migration internationale » constitue la nouvelle formule magique de nombreuses études migratoires. Or, depuis un demi-siècle, la part des femmes dans la migration internationale n’a pas vraiment augmenté. En revanche, les femmes représentent aujourd’hui plus de la moitié des migrants diplômés de l’enseignement supérieur dans les pays de l’OCDE. Pourtant, cette féminisation de la migration qualifiée est moins souvent discutée. Comme si les diplômes des femmes migrantes devaient rester aussi invisibles dans la recherche que sur (...) le marché du travail. (shrink)

The gendered division of labour in combination with the feminisation of international migration contribute to shortages of care, a phenomenon often called ‘care drain’. I argue that this phenomenon is an issue of global gender justice. I look at two methodological challenges and favourably analyse the suggestions that care drain studies should include the effects of fathers’ and other male caregivers’ migration and, in some cases, the effects of migration within national borders. I also explain why care drain is a (...) problem of distributive justice, by looking at the background conditions that result in much of the care-givers’ migration. (shrink)