In this paper, I explore the question of whether the expected consequences of holding a belief can affect the rationality of doing so. Special attention is given to various ways in which one might attempt to exert some measure of control over what one believes and the normative status of the beliefs that result from the successful execution of such projects. I argue that the lessons which emerge from thinking about the case ofbelief have important implications for the way we (...) should think about the rationality of a number of other propositional attitudes,such as regret, desire, and fear. Finally,I suggest that a lack of clarity with respect to the relevant issues has given rise to a number of rather serious philosophical mistakes. (shrink)

(1) This paper uses the following binary relations: > (is preferred to); ⩽ (is not preferred to); < (is less preferred than); ~ (is indifferent to). (2) Savage used primitive ⩾, postulated to be connected and transitive onA (the set of acts), to define the others: [x ~ y ⇔ (x ⩽ y and y ⩽ x)]; [y < x ⇔ notx ⩽ y]; [x > y ⇔ y < x]. Independently of the axioms, this definition implies that ⩽ and (...) > are complementary relations onA: [x < y ⇔ notx > y]. (3) Pratt, Raiffa and Schlaifer used primitive ⩽, postulated to be transitive onL (the set of lotteries), to define the others with a different expression for <: [x < y ⇔ (x ⩽ y and noty ⩽ x)]. Thus, ⩽ and > are not necessarily complementary onL; since ⩽ is not postulated to be connected onL, but connected ⩽ is necessary and sufficient for such complementarity. Since the restriction of ⩽ to the subsetA ofL is connected, ⩽ and > are complementary onA. (4) Fishburn used primitive < onA to define the others with different expression for ~ and ⩽: [x ~ y ⇔ (notx < y and noty < x)]; [x ⩽ y ⇔ (x < y orx ~ y)]. His version of Savage's theory then assumed that < is asymmetric and negatively transitive onA. Thus, ⩽ and > are complementary, since asymmetric < is necessary and sufficient for such complementarity. (5) This analysis provides a new proof that the same list of elementary properties of binary relations onA applies to all three theories: ⩽ is connected, transitive, weakly connected, reflexive, and negatively transitive; while both < and > are asymmetric, negatively transitive, antisymmetric, irreflexive, and transitive; but only ~ is symmetric. (shrink)