Bayesianism provides a rich theoretical framework, which lends itself rather naturally to the explication of various “contrastive” and “non-contrastive” concepts. In this (brief) discussion, I will focus on issues involving “contrastivism”, as they arise in some of the recent philosophy of science, epistemology, and cognitive science literature surrounding Bayesian confirmation theory.

On sait que l'ontologie leibnizienne trace, pour ainsi dire, le plus court chemin de la possibilité à l'existence. On mesure moins que cette ligne est parcourue d'étapes dont la première, assurément, est l'existentiabilité des possibles. Cet article examine d'abord la conception leibnizienne de la possibilité, à travers cinq définitions. Il analyse ensuite la nature et le rôle de cette existentiabilité, dans ses rapports à la possibilité d'une part et à l'existence elle-même d'autre part, pour finalement conclure sur l'existentialisme d'un auteur (...) dont on souligne habituellement l'essentialisme. De cette manière, possibilité et existentiabilité permettent de redécouvrir à nouveaux frais tout un pan de la pensée de Leibniz. (shrink)

„De incerti aestimatione” („O szacowaniu rzeczy niepewnych”) G.W. Leibniza z 1678-ego roku stanowi próbę wyprowadzenia ogólnej metody dla rozwiązania problemu punktów, czyli podziału puli w dowolnej rundzie gry. Część wyjaśniająca zawiera szereg definicji i pomysłów pojawiających się w pismach Leibniza w poprzednich latach. Wśród nich znajduje się definicja pojęcia prawdopodobieństwa (probabilitas) kojarzonego wówczas z niezakończonym jeszcze sporem o probabilizm moralno-teologiczny. Jest to w tym wypadku skojarzenie uzasadnione faktem, że w korespondencji i późniejszych pismach Leibniz proponuje rozważać prawdopodobieństwo w znaczeniu matematycznym (...) w przeciwieństwie do znaczenia używanego w teologii moralnej. „De incerti aestimatione” jest drugą pracą Leibniza, w której poświęca on uwagę grom, zagadnieniu ich sprawiedliwości i oczekiwanej wartości, którą nazywa nadzieją. W artykule omówiono prawne, moralne i metafizyczne konteksty pojęć probabilitas, jus (prawa) i ratio, jak również ograniczenia moralnego zastosowania pojęcia prawdopodobieństwa. Przedstawiono także rozwiązanie problemu punktów przez Leibniza, które, choć błędne, stanowi niezależną od Pascala propozycję zastosowania do tego problemu metody rekurencyjnej. (shrink)

In this paper the strategy for the eliminative reduction of the alethic modalities suggested by John Venn is outlined and it is shown to anticipate certain related contemporary empiricistic and nominalistic projects. Venn attempted to reduce the alethic modalities to probabilities, and thus suggested a promising solution to the nagging issue of the inclusion of modal statements in empiricistic philosophical systems. However, despite the promise that this suggestion held for laying the ‘ghost of modality’ to rest, this general approach, tempered (...) modal eliminativism, is shown to be inadequate for that task.<br><br>. (shrink)

Some of the problem areas in which British philosophers of science have recently been engaged are described and some of the major contributions noted. Two sets of problems are given special attention: one concerned with the analysis of probability statements and one concerned with the appraisal of scientific theories. Three traditions in the approach to this second set of problems are distinguished. These might be called the Carnapian, the Popperian and the Wittgensteinian traditions.

My dissertation explores the ways in which Rudolf Carnap sought to make philosophy scientific by further developing recent interpretive efforts to explain Carnap’s mature philosophical work as a form of engineering. It does this by looking in detail at his philosophical practice in his most sustained mature project, his work on pure and applied inductive logic. I, first, specify the sort of engineering Carnap is engaged in as involving an engineering design problem and then draw out the complications of design (...) problems from current work in history of engineering and technology studies. I then model Carnap’s practice based on those lessons and uncover ways in which Carnap’s technical work in inductive logic takes some of these lessons on board. This shows ways in which Carnap’s philosophical project subtly changes right through his late work on induction, providing an important corrective to interpretations that ignore the work on inductive logic. Specifically, I show that paying attention to the historical details of Carnap’s attempt to apply his work in inductive logic to decision theory and theoretical statistics in the 1950s and 1960s helps us understand how Carnap develops and rearticulates the philosophical point of the practical/theoretical distinction in his late work, offering thus a new interpretation of Carnap’s technical work within the broader context of philosophy of science and analytical philosophy in general. (shrink)