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  1. Frustration and Delay.Arif Ahmed - manuscript
    Abstract. The paper describes a situation in which Causal Decision Theory (CDT) advises the agent to decline a free offer of $1,000, with the foreseeable result that the agent is $1,000 poorer than if she had taken the offer. I take this absurd consequence of CDT to constitute a refutation of it.
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  • Self‐Prediction in Practical Reasoning: Its Role and Limits.Stephen J. White - forthcoming - Noûs.
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  • Ramsey and Joyce on Deliberation and Prediction.Yang Liu & Huw Price - forthcoming - Synthese:1-22.
    Can an agent deliberating about an action A hold a meaningful credence that she will do A? 'No', say some authors, for 'Deliberation Crowds Out Prediction' (DCOP). Others disagree, but we argue here that such disagreements are often terminological. We explain why DCOP holds in a Ramseyian operationalist model of credence, but show that it is trivial to extend this model so that DCOP fails. We then discuss a model due to Joyce, and show that Joyce's rejection of DCOP rests (...)
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  • Two Tales of Epistemic Models.Yang Liu - 2019 - Thought: A Journal of Philosophy 8 (4):291-302.
    This short paper has two parts. First, we prove a generalisation of Aumann's surprising impossibility result in the context of rational decision making. We then move, in the second part, to discuss the interpretational meaning of some formal setups of epistemic models, and we do so by means of presenting an interesting puzzle in epistemic logic. The aim is to highlight certain problematic aspects of these epistemic systems concerning first/third-person asymmetry which underlies both parts of the story. This asymmetry, we (...)
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