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  1. The Limits of Bayesian Thinking in Court.Ronald Meester - 2020 - Topics in Cognitive Science 12 (4):1205-1212.
    We comment on the contributions of Dahlman and of Fenton et al., who both suggested a Bayesian approach to analyze the Simonshaven case. We argue that analyzing a full case with a Bayesian approach is not feasible, and that there are serious problems with assigning actual numbers to probabilities and priors. We also discuss the nature of Bayesian thinking in court, and the nature and interpretation of the likelihood ratio. In particular, we discuss what it could mean that a likelihood (...)
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  • Drawing conclusions: Representing and evaluating competing explanations.Alice Liefgreen & David A. Lagnado - 2023 - Cognition 234 (C):105382.
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  • Measuring coherence with Bayesian networks.Alicja Kowalewska & Rafal Urbaniak - forthcoming - Artificial Intelligence and Law:1-27.
    When we talk about the coherence of a story, we seem to think of how well its individual pieces fit together—how to explicate this notion formally, though? We develop a Bayesian network based coherence measure with implementation in R, which performs better than its purely probabilistic predecessors. The novelty is that by paying attention to the network structure, we avoid simply taking mean confirmation scores between all possible pairs of subsets of a narration. Moreover, we assign special importance to the (...)
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  • Analyzing the Simonshaven Case Using Bayesian Networks.Norman Fenton, Martin Neil, Barbaros Yet & David Lagnado - 2020 - Topics in Cognitive Science 12 (4):1092-1114.
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