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  1. Calibration, coherence, and scoring rules.Teddy Seidenfeld - 1985 - Philosophy of Science 52 (2):274-294.
    Can there be good reasons for judging one set of probabilistic assertions more reliable than a second? There are many candidates for measuring "goodness" of probabilistic forecasts. Here, I focus on one such aspirant: calibration. Calibration requires an alignment of announced probabilities and observed relative frequency, e.g., 50 percent of forecasts made with the announced probability of.5 occur, 70 percent of forecasts made with probability.7 occur, etc. To summarize the conclusions: (i) Surveys designed to display calibration curves, from which a (...)
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  • Meta-inductive Justification of Inductive Generalizations.Gerhard Schurz - forthcoming - Erkenntnis:1-24.
    The account of meta-induction (G. Schurz, Hume’s problem solved: the optimality of meta-induction, MIT Press, Cambridge, 2019) proposes a two-step solution to the problem of induction. Step 1 consists in a mathematical a priori justification of the predictive optimality of meta-induction, upon which step 2 builds a meta-inductive a posteriori justification of object-induction based on its superior track record (Sect. 1). Sterkenburg (Br J Philos Sci, forthcoming. 10.1086/717068/) challenged this account by arguing that meta-induction can only provide a (non-circular) justification (...)
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  • Carnap's robot and inductive logic.Stephen Spielman - 1976 - Journal of Philosophical Logic 5 (3):407 - 415.
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