Giving your knowledge half a chance

Philosophical Studies (2):1-25 (2014)
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Abstract
One thousand fair causally isolated coins will be independently flipped tomorrow morning and you know this fact. I argue that the probability, conditional on your knowledge, that any coin will land tails is almost 1 if that coin in fact lands tails, and almost 0 if it in fact lands heads. I also show that the coin flips are not probabilistically independent given your knowledge. These results are uncomfortable for those, like Timothy Williamson, who take these probabilities to play a central role in their theorizing
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BACGYK
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Archival date: 2013-12-18
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2013-08-06

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