The whole truth about Linda: probability, verisimilitude and a paradox of conjunction
In Marcello D'Agostino, Federico Laudisa, Giulio Giorello, Telmo Pievani & Corrado Sinigaglia (eds.), New Essays in Logic and Philosophy of Science. College Publications. pp. 603--615 (2010)
Abstract
We provide a 'verisimilitudinarian' analysis of the
well-known Linda paradox or conjunction fallacy,
i.e., the fact that most people judge the
probability of the conjunctive statement "Linda
is a bank teller and is active in the feminist
movement" (B & F) as more probable than the
isolated statement "Linda is a bank teller" (B),
contrary to an uncontroversial
principle of probability theory.
The basic idea is that experimental participants
may judge B & F a better hypothesis about Linda
as compared to B because they evaluate B & F as
more verisimilar than B.
In fact, the hypothesis "feminist bank teller",
while less likely to be true than "bank teller",
may well be a better approximation to the truth
about Linda.
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2011-01-30
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412 ( #808 of 56,008 )
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