Abstract

This essay proposes a simple way to incentivize states not to develop pathogens with enhanced pandemic potential (PEPPs) as bioweapons: to tip all state actors that all of them stand to lose from developing such highly lethal, highly transmissible bioweapons. Being highly transmissible, a PEPP used as a weapon could easily spread, infecting a state’s own citizens and leaders. Therefore, no state concerned for its own citizens or leaders can afford to use a PEPP weapon, even having developed or acquired it. We then show that when this is commonly known between states, having PEPPs provides no useful deterrent to a state, and there is no point getting into an arms race. Developing and stockpiling PEPP weapons gives states no gain, only risk. We end by assessing three objections to our thesis.