Jury Theorems

In M. Fricker (ed.), The Routledge Handbook of Social Epistemology. New York and Abingdon: (2020)
Download Edit this record How to cite View on PhilPapers
We give a review and critique of jury theorems from a social-epistemology perspective, covering Condorcet’s (1785) classic theorem and several later refinements and departures. We assess the plausibility of the conclusions and premises featuring in jury theorems and evaluate the potential of such theorems to serve as formal arguments for the ‘wisdom of crowds’. In particular, we argue (i) that there is a fundamental tension between voters’ independence and voters’ competence, hence between the two premises of most jury theorems; (ii) that the (asymptotic) conclusion that ‘huge groups are infallible’, reached by many jury theorems, is an artifact of unjustified premises; and (iii) that the (nonasymptotic) conclusion that ‘larger groups are more reliable’, also reached by many jury theorems, is not an artifact and should be regarded as the more adequate formal rendition of the ‘wisdom of crowds’.
PhilPapers/Archive ID
Upload history
First archival date: 2020-04-13
Latest version: 2 (2020-04-21)
View other versions
Added to PP index

Total views
181 ( #32,424 of 2,449,107 )

Recent downloads (6 months)
42 ( #15,905 of 2,449,107 )

How can I increase my downloads?

Downloads since first upload
This graph includes both downloads from PhilArchive and clicks on external links on PhilPapers.