Probabilistic Opinion Pooling

In A. Hajek & C. Hitchcock (eds.), Oxford Handbook of Philosophy and Probability. Oxford: Oxford University Press (2016)
Download Edit this record How to cite View on PhilPapers
Abstract
Suppose several individuals (e.g., experts on a panel) each assign probabilities to some events. How can these individual probability assignments be aggregated into a single collective probability assignment? This article reviews several proposed solutions to this problem. We focus on three salient proposals: linear pooling (the weighted or unweighted linear averaging of probabilities), geometric pooling (the weighted or unweighted geometric averaging of probabilities), and multiplicative pooling (where probabilities are multiplied rather than averaged). We present axiomatic characterisations of each class of pooling functions (most of them classic, but one new) and argue that linear pooling can be justified "procedurally" but not "epistemically", while the other two pooling methods can be justified "epistemically". The choice between them, in turn, depends on whether the individuals' probability assignments are based on shared information or on private information. We conclude by mentioning a number of other pooling methods.
Reprint years
2014, 2015, 2016
PhilPapers/Archive ID
DIEPOP
Revision history
Archival date: 2016-08-29
View upload history
References found in this work BETA

View all 12 references / Add more references

Citations of this work BETA
Probabilistic Opinion Pooling with Imprecise Probabilities.Stewart, Rush T. & Quintana, Ignacio Ojea
Utilitarianism with and Without Expected Utility.McCarthy, David; Mikkola, Kalle & Thomas, Teruji
A Pragmatic Argument Against Equal Weighting.Nissan-Rozen, Ittay & Spectre, Levi

View all 16 citations / Add more citations

Added to PP index
2014-03-02

Total views
237 ( #14,520 of 42,959 )

Recent downloads (6 months)
124 ( #3,516 of 42,959 )

How can I increase my downloads?

Downloads since first upload
This graph includes both downloads from PhilArchive and clicks to external links.