The Premises of Condorcet’s Jury Theorem Are Not Simultaneously Justified

Episteme 5 (1):56-73 (2008)
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Abstract
Condorcet's famous jury theorem reaches an optimistic conclusion on the correctness of majority decisions, based on two controversial premises about voters: they are competent and vote independently, in a technical sense. I carefully analyse these premises and show that: whether a premise is justi…ed depends on the notion of probability considered; none of the notions renders both premises simultaneously justi…ed. Under the perhaps most interesting notions, the independence assumption should be weakened.
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First archival date: 2020-04-19
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2009-01-28

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