A Trap at the Escape from the Trap? Some Demographic Structural Factors of Political Instability in Modernizing Social Systems

In History & Mathematics: Trends and Cycles. Volgograd, Russia: Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 201-267 (2014)
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Abstract

The escape from the ‘Malthusian trap’ is shown to tend to generate in a rather systematic way quite serious political upheavals. Some demographic structural mechanisms that generate such upheavals have been analyzed, which has made it possible to develop a mathematical model of the respective processes. The forecast of political instability in Sub-Saharan African countries in 2015– 2050 produced on the basis of this model is presented.

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Leonid Grinin
National Research University Higher School of Economics

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