52 found
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  1. Will the Global Crisis Lead to Global Transformations? 2. The Coming Epoch of New Coalitions.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2010 - Journal of Globalization Studies 1 (2):166-183.
    This article presents possible answers, and their respective probabilities, to the question, ‘What are the consequences of the present global crisis in the proximate future of the World System?’ It also attempts to describe the basic characteristics of the forthcoming ‘Epoch of New Coalitions’ and to forecast certain future conditions. Among the problems analyzed in this paper are the following: What does the weakening of the economic role of the USA as the World System centre mean? Will there be a (...)
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  2. (2 other versions)Дефляция как болезнь современных развитых стран.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2015 - In Анализ и моделирование мировой и страновой динамики: методология и базовые модели. Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 241-270.
    В последние два-три года среди многочислен- ных проблем в отношении европейской и американской экономики все чаще стала упоминаться опасность дефляции. При этом в каче- стве примера рассматривается японская экономика, которая уже два десятилетия страдает от дефляции, несмотря на огромные раз- меры финансовых вливаний и усилия правительства разогнать ин- фляцию. В западных экономиках инфляция также низкая, времена- ми нулевая, переходящая в дефляцию. В целом есть основания счи- тать, что страны Европы заболевают «японской болезнью», а также что эта «болезнь» может прогрессировать либо (...)
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  3. The Cybernetic Revolution and Historical Process.Leonid Grinin & Anton Grinin - 2015 - Social Evolution and History 14 (1):125-184.
    The article analyzes the technological shifts which took place in the second half of the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries and predict the main shifts in the next half a century. On the basis of the analysis of the latest achievements in medicine, bio- and nanotechnologies, robotics, ICT and other technological directions and also on the basis of the opportunities provided by the theory of production revolutions the authors present a detailed analysis of the latest production revolution which is denoted (...)
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  4. State and Socio-Political Crises in the Process of Modernization.Leonid Grinin - 2013 - Social Evolution and History 12 (2):35-76.
    This article starts with a brief analysis of the causes of state collapse as states undergo the process of political evolution. Next, I describe and analyze the mechanisms of social-political crises arising in the process of modernization. Such crises are a consequence of the inability of many traditional institutions and ideologies to keep up with changes in technology, communication, system of education, medical sphere, and with the demographic change. This analysis suggests that an accelerated development can cause a system crisis (...)
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  5. Which global transformations would the global crisis lead to?Leonid Grinin - 2015 - This Globalizing World 1:42-66.
    This article analyzes the global causes of the contemporary crisis and the possibilities to eliminate the most acute problems that have generated this crisis. It analyzes both the negative role of the world financial flows and their important positive functions including the ‘insurance’ of social guaranties at the global scale. In connection with the outcome of the crisis it analyzes the conditions of possible transformations of the world system and the possibility of various global scripts of its near future. It (...)
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  6. Cybernetic Revolution and Forthcoming Technological Transformations (The Development of the Leading Technologies in the Light of the Theory of Production Revolutions).Leonid Grinin & Anton Grinin - 2015 - In Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev (eds.), Evolution: From Big Bang to Nanorobots. Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 251-330.
    The article analyzes the technological shifts which took place in the second half of the 20th and early 21st centuries and forecasts the main shifts in the next half a century. On the basis of the analysis of the latest achievements in inno-vative technological directions and also on the basis of the opportunities pro-vided by the theory of production revolutions the authors present a detailed analysis of the latest production revolution which is denoted as ‘Сybernetic’. The authors give some forecasts (...)
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  7. Economic Cycles, Crises, and the Global Periphery.Leonid Grinin, Arno Tausch & Andrey Korotayev (eds.) - 2016 - Switzerland: Springer International Publishing Switzerland.
    This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifi cally the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfi lms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this (...)
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  8. World Order in the Past, Present, and Future.Leonid Grinin, Alexey Andreev & Ilya Illin - 2016 - Social EvolutionandHistory 15 (1):58-84.
    The present article analyzes the world order in the past, present and future as well as the main factors, foundations and ideas underlying the maintaining and change of the international and global order. The first two sections investigate the evolution of the world order starting from the ancient times up to the late twentieth century. The third section analyzes the origin and decline of the world order based on the American hegemony. The authors reveal the contradictions of the current unipolar (...)
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  9. Global Technological Perspectives in the Light of Cybernetic Revolution and Theory of Long Cycles.Leonid Grinin & Anton Grinin - 2015 - Journal of Globalization Studies 6 (2):119-142.
    In the present paper, on the basis of the theory of production principles and production revolutions, we reveal the interrelation between K-waves and major technological breakthroughs in history and make some predictions about features of the sixth Kondratieff wave in the light of the Cybernetic Revolution which, we think, started in the 1950s. We assume that the sixth K-wave in the 2030s and 2040s will merge with the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution (which we call the phase of self-regulating (...)
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  10. Globalization And The Shifting Of Global Economic-Political Balance.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2014 - In Endre Kiss & Arisztotelész Kiadó (eds.), The Dialectics of Modernity - Recognizing Globalization. Studies on the Theoretical Perspectives of Globalization. Publisherhouse Arostotelész. pp. 184-207.
    The article offers forecasts of the geopolitical and geo-economic development of the world in the forthcoming decades. One of the main accusations directed toward globalization is that it deepens the gap between the developed and developing countries dooming them to eternal backwardness. The article demonstrates that the actual situation is very different. It is shown that this is due to the globalization that the developing countries are generally growing much faster than the developed states, the World System core starts weakening (...)
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  11. Interaction between Kondratieff Waves and Juglar Cycles.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2014 - In Kondratieff Waves. Juglar – Kuznets – Kondratieff. Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 25-95.
    Some important correlations between medium-term economic cycles (7–11 years) known as Juglar cycles and long (40–60 years) Kondratieff cycles are presented in this paper. The research into the history of this issue shows that this aspect is insufficiently studied. Meanwhile, in our opinion, it can significantly clarify both the reasons of alternation of upswing and downswing phases in K-waves and the reasons of relative stability of the length of these waves. It also can provide the certain means for forecasting. The (...)
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  12. The Sixth Kondratieff Wave and the Cybernetic Revolution.Leonid Grinin & Anton Grinin - 2016 - Globalistics and Globalization Studies:337-355.
    In the present paper, on the basis of the theory of production principles and production revolutions, we reveal the interrelation between K-waves and major technological breakthroughs in history and make forecasts about features of the sixth Kondratieff wave in the light of the Cybernetic Revolution that, from our point of view, started in the 1950s. We assume that the sixth K-wave in the 2030s and 2040s will merge with the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution (which we call a phase (...)
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  13. Will the Explosive Growth of China Continue?Leonid Grinin, Sergey Tsirel & Andrey Korotayev - 2015 - Technological Forecasting and Social Change 95:394-308.
    The role of China in the world economy is constantly growing. In particular we observe that it plays more and more important role in the support of theworld economic growth (as well as high prices of certain very important commodities). In the meantime the perspectives of the Chinese economy (as well as possible fates of the Chinese society) remain unclear, whereas respective forecasts look rather contradictory. That is why the search for new aspects and modes of analysis of possible development (...)
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  14. Global Population Ageing, the sixth Kondratieff wave, and the global financial system.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2016 - Journal of Globalization Studies 7 (2):11-31.
    Concerns about population ageing apply to both developed and many developing countries and it has turned into a global issue. In the forthcoming decades the population ageing is likely to become one of the most important processes determining the future society characteristics and the direction of technological development. The present paper analyzes some aspects of the population ageing and its important consequences for particular societies and the whole world. Basing on this analysis, we can draw a conclusion that the future (...)
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  15. The Pathways of Politogenesis and Models of the Early State Formation.Leonid Grinin - 2009 - Social Evolution and History 8 (1):92-132.
    This article considers concrete manifestations of the politogenesis multilinearity and the variation of its forms; it analyzes the main causes that determined the politogenetic pathway of a given society. The respective factors include the polity's size, its ecological and social environment. The politogenesis should be never reduced to the only one evolutionary pathway leading to the statehood. The early state formation was only one of many versions of development of complex late archaic social systems. The author designates various complex non-state (...)
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  16. The Cybernetic Revolution and the Forthcoming Epoch of Self-Regulating Systems.Leonid Grinin & Anton L. Grinin - 2016 - Moscow,Russia: "Uchitel" Publishing House.
    The monograph presents the ideas about the main changes that occurred in the development of technologies from the emergence of Homo sapiens till present time and outlines the prospects of their development in the next 30–60 years and in some respect until the end of the twenty-first century. What determines the transition of a society from one level of development to another? One of the most fundamental causes is the global technological transformations. Among all major technological breakthroughs in history the (...)
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  17. The Tiger and the Dragon. Development Models and Perspectives of India and China.Leonid Grinin - 2013 - Journal of Globalization Studies 4 (1):5-31.
    In the coming decades in the process of globalization the position of the USA and Europe will weaken, while the role of developing countries will increase. The role of the two largest emerging economies – China and India – will be of special significance. What future will these fast-growing giants face? The demographers agree that pretty soon India will lead the world in population and thus surpass China, while China will encounter serious ageing population problems. But economic and political scenarios (...)
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  18. A Trap at the Escape from the Trap? Some Demographic Structural Factors of Political Instability in Modernizing Social Systems.Leonid Grinin, Andrey V. Korotayev & Sergey Yu Malkov - 2014 - In Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev (eds.), History & Mathematics: Trends and Cycles. Volgograd: "Uchitel" Publishing House. pp. 201-267.
    The escape from the ‘Malthusian trap’ is shown to tend to generate in a rather systematic way quite serious political upheavals. Some demographic structural mechanisms that generate such upheavals have been analyzed, which has made it possible to develop a mathematical model of the respective processes. The forecast of political instability in Sub-Saharan African countries in 2015– 2050 produced on the basis of this model is presented.
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  19. Kondratieff Waves in the Global Studies Perspective.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2014 - In Leonid Grinin, Ilya V. Ilyin & Andrey V. Korotayev (eds.), Globalistics and Globalization Studies. Aspects & Dimensions of Global Views. pp. 65-98.
    The analysis of long economic cycles allows us to understand long-term worldsystem dynamics, to develop forecasts, to explain crises of the past, as well as the current global economic crisis. The article offers a historical sketch of research on K-waves; it analyzes the nature of Kondratieff waves that are considered as a special form of cyclical dynamics that emerged in the industrial period of the World System history. It offers a historical and theoretical analysis of K-wave dynamics in the World (...)
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  20. Macroevolution of Technology.Leonid Grinin & Anton Grinin - 2013 - Evolution: Development Within Different Paradigms 6 (11):143-178.
    What determines the transition of a society from one level of development to another? One of the most fundamental causes is the global technological transformations. Among all major technological breakthroughs in history the most important are the three production revolutions: 1) the Agrarian Revolution; 2) the Industrial Revolution and 3) the Scientific-Information Revolution which will transform into the Cybernetic one. The article introduces the Theory of Production Revolutions. This is a new explanatory paradigm which is of value when analyzing causes (...)
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  21. The Tiger and the Dragon.Leonid Grinin - 2014 - In Leonid Grinin, Ilya V. Ilyin & Andrey V. Korotayev (eds.), Globalistics and Globalization Studies. Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 184-208.
    In the coming decades in the process of globalization the position of the USA and Europe will weaken, while the role of developing countries will increase. The role of the two largest emerging economies – China and India – will be of special significance. What future will these fast-growing giants face? The demographers agree that pretty soon India will lead the world in population and thus surpass China, while China will encounter serious population ageing. But economic and political scenarios of (...)
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  22. (2 other versions)Контуры нового мирового порядка.Leonid Grinin - 2015 - Философия И Общество 3 (4):7-33.
    Мировой порядок как система определенных идей и правил, господ-ствующих в международной политике, стал формироваться в Европе начиная с XVI в., окончательно утвердившись в XIX столетии. Однако этот порядок держится обычно в пределах трех-четырех десятилетий, а затем под влиянием изменившихся обстоятельств и нового баланса сил меняется. В настоящее время мы как раз переживаем период смены ми-рового порядка и начала формирования новой его системы. В статье анализируется начало ослабления мирового порядка, основанного на американской гегемонии, рассматриваются характерные черты и методы, которые используют США (...)
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  23. World order transformation and sociopolitical destabilization.Leonid Grinin, Andrey Korotayev, Leonid Issaev, Alisa Shishkina, Evgeny Ivanov & Kira Meshcherina - 2017 - Basic Research Program: Working Papers.
    The present working paper analyzes the world order in the past, present and future as well as the main factors, foundations and ideas underlying the maintaining and change of the international and global order. The first two sections investigate the evolution of the world order starting from the ancient times up to the late twentieth century. The third section analyzes the origin and decline of the world order based on the American hegemony. The authors reveal contradictions of the current unipolar (...)
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  24. Revolution and Democracy: Sociopolitical Systems in the Context of Modernisation.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2016 - Cejiss 3:110-130.
    The stability of socio-political systems and the risks of destabilisation in the process of political transformation are among the most important issues of social development; the transition to democracy may pose a serious threat to the stability of a respective socio-political system. This article studies the issue of democratisation. It highlights the high economic and social costs of a rapid transition to democracy for countries unprepared for it—democracy resulting from revolutions or similar large-scale events. The authors believe that in a (...)
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  25. Origins of Globalization in the Framework of the Afroeurasian World-System History.Leonid Grinin & Andrey V. Korotayev - 2014 - Journal of Globalization Studies 5 (1):32-64.
    The formation of the Afroeurasian world-system was one of the crucial points of social evolution, starting from which the social evolution rate and effectiveness increased dramatically. In the present article we analyze processes and scales of global integration in historical perspective, starting with the Agrarian Revolution. We connect the main phases of historical globalization with the processes of the development of the Afroeurasian world-system. In the framework of the Afroeurasian world-system the integration began a few thousand years BCE. In this (...)
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  26. Globalization and the World System Evolution.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2013 - Evolution: Development Within Different Paradigms 6 (11):30-68.
    The formation of the Afroeurasian world-system was one of the crucial points of social evolution, starting from which the social evolution rate and effective-ness increased dramatically. In the present article we analyze processes and scales of global integration in historical perspective, starting with the Agrarian Revolution. We connect the main phases of historical globalization with the processes of development of the Afroeurasian world-system. In the framework of the Afroeurasian world-system the integration began a few thousand years Before the Common Era. (...)
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  27. Forthcoming Kondratieff wave, Cybernetic Revolution, and global ageing.Leonid Grinin, Anton Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2017 - Technological Forecasting and Social Change 115:52-68.
    In the present article we analyze the relationships between K-waves and major technological breakthroughs in history and offer forecasts about features of the sixth Kondratieff wave. We use for our analysis the basic ideas of long cycles' theory and related theories (theories of the leading sector, technological styles etc.) as well as the ideas of our own theory of production principles and production revolutions. The latest of production revolution is the Cybernetic Revolution that, from our point of view, started in (...)
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  28. On Similarities between Biological and Social Evolutionary Mechanisms: Mathematical Modeling.Leonid Grinin - 2013 - Cliodynamics: The Journal of Theoretical and Mathematical History 4:185-228.
    In the first part of this article we survey general similarities and differences between biological and social macroevolution. In the second (and main) part, we consider a concrete mathematical model capable of describing important features of both biological and social macroevolution. In mathematical models of historical macrodynamics, a hyperbolic pattern of world population growth arises from non-linear, second-order positive feedback between demographic growth and technological development. This is more or less identical with the working of the collective learning mechanism. Based (...)
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  29. (1 other version)Introduction. Modeling and Measuring Cycles, Processes, and Trends.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2014 - In Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev (eds.), History & Mathematics: Trends and Cycles. Volgograd: "Uchitel" Publishing House. pp. 5-8.
    The present Yearbook (which is the fourth in the series) is subtitled Trends & Cycles. Already ancient historians (see, e.g., the second Chapter of Book VI of Polybius' Histories) described rather well the cyclical component of historical dynamics, whereas new interesting analyses of such dynamics also appeared in the Medieval and Early Modern periods (see, e.g., Ibn Khaldūn 1958 [1377], or Machiavelli 1996 [1531] 1). This is not surprising as the cyclical dynamics was dominant in the agrarian social systems. With (...)
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  30. Cosmic Evolution and Universal Evolutionary Principles.Leonid Grinin - 2015 - In Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev (eds.), Evolution: From Big Bang to Nanorobots. Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 20-45.
    The present article attempts at combining Big History potential with the potential of Evolutionary Studies in order to achieve the following goals: 1) to apply the historical narrative principle to the description of the star-galaxy era of the cosmic phase of Big History; 2) to analyze both the cosmic history and similarities and differences between evolutionary laws, principles, and mechanisms at various levels and phases of Big History. As far as I know, nobody has approached this task in a systemic (...)
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  31. Economic Development, Sociopolitical Destabilization and Inequality.Leonid Grinin, Andrey Korotayev, Kira Meshcherina, Stanislav Bilyuga & Alisa Shishkina - 2017 - Russian Sociological Review 16 (3):9-35.
    In the 1960s Mancur Olson and Samuel Huntington suggested that the positive correlation between per capita income and the level of sociopolitical destabilization that they detected for low and middle income countries might be partly accounted for by the growth of the inequality associated with the economic and technological development in these countries. The empirical tests we perform generally support this hypothesis, but they also identify certain limits for such an explanation. Our tests reveal for low and middle income countries (...)
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  32. Urbanization and Political Development of the World System.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2013 - Entelequia 15:197-255.
    Section 1 of this article presents a mathematical analysis of the longterm global urbanization dynamics and demonstrates that it could be described as a series of phase transitions between attraction basins. This makes it possible to suggest new approaches to the analysis of global social macroevolution. Section 2 presents a threestage model of the macroevolution of the World System statehood (early – developed – mature state) that, we believe, describes the main features of political macroevolution better than the twostage model (...)
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  33. Akamatsu Waves.Leonid Grinin, Arno Tausch & Andrey Korotayev - 2017 - Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics:1-16.
    In 1937, the Japanese economist Kaname Akamatsu discovered specific links between the rise and decline of the global peripheries. Akamatsu’s theory of development describes certain mechanisms whose working results in the narrowing of the gap between the level of development of the economy of developing and developed countries, and, thus, in the re-structuring of the relationships between the global core and the global periphery. Akamatsu developed his model on the basis of his analysis of the economic development of Japan before (...)
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  34. The MANBRIC-technologies in the forthcoming technological revolution.Leonid Grinin, Anton Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2017 - Industry 4.0 - Entrepreneurship and Structural Change in the New Digital Landscape: What is Coming on Along with the Fourth Industrial Revolution:243-261.
    In this chapter, we analyze the relationship between Kondratieff waves and major technological revolutions on the basis of the theory of production principles and production revolutions, and offer some forecasts about the features of the Sixth Kondratieff Wave/the Fourth Industrial Revolution. We show that the technological breakthrough of the Sixth Kondratieff Wave may be interpreted as both the Fourth Industrial Revolution and as the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution. We assume that the sixth K-wave in the 2030s and 2040s (...)
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  35. Cyclical Dynamics in Economics and Politics in the Past and in the Future.Leonid Grinin, Tessaleno C. Devezas & Andrey V. Korotayev - 2014 - In Kondratieff Waves. Juglar – Kuznets – Kondratieff. Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 5-24.
    Nikolay Kondratieff is known primarily for his theory of long cycles. However, it is worth recalling that he was among the first who started to investigate the nature of different economic cycles and their systematic interaction. Actually the primary classification of cycles into short, medium and long belongs to Kondratieff.
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  36. (7 other versions)Исторические и геополитические причины социально-политического кризиса на Украине.Leonid Grinin - 2015 - История И Современность 2:3-44.
    Проблема социально-политического кризиса на Украине комплексная. Для анализа современного кризиса необходимо использовать различные методы и теории. В настоящей статье для определения исторических и геоисторических причин современного кризиса активно использованы ис-торико-генетический и историко-сравнительный методы. Многие на первый взгляд труднообъяснимые и откровенно негативные особенности внешней и внутренней политики современной Украины в значительной степени связаны с геополитическими и историческими особенностями формирования государства, менталитета и традициями социально-политической психологии. Очевидно также, что многие отрицательно воздействующие на стабильность государства геополитические и гео-культурные факторы прошлого не утратили своего (...)
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  37. Global History and Future World Order.Leonid Grinin, Ilya Il'in & Alexey Andreev - 2016 - Globalistics and Globalization Studies:93-110.
    The present article analyzes the world order in the past, present and future as well as the main factors, foundations and ideas underlying the maintaining and change of the international and global order. The first two sections investigate the evolution of the world order starting from the ancient times up to the late twentieth century. The third section analyzes the origin and decline of the world order based on the American hegemony. The authors reveal the contradictions of the current unipolar (...)
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  38. Once More about Aspects, Directions, General Patterns and Principles of Evolutionary Development.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2015 - In Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev (eds.), Evolution: From Big Bang to Nanorobots. Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 5-19.
    The present volume is the fourth issue of the Almanac series entitled ‘Evolu-tion’. Thus, one can maintain that our Almanac, which has actually turned into a Yearbook, has succeeded (see below). The title of the present volume is ‘From Big Bang to Nanorobots’. In this way we demonstrate that all phases of megaevolution and Big History are cov-ered in the articles of the present Yearbook. Several articles also present fore-casts about possible future developments. The main objective of our Yearbook as (...)
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  39. Mathematical Modeling of Biological and Social Evolutionary Macrotrends.Leonid Grinin, Alexander V. Markov & Andrey V. Korotayev - 2014 - In Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev (eds.), History & Mathematics: Trends and Cycles. Volgograd: "Uchitel" Publishing House. pp. 9-48.
    In the first part of this article we survey general similarities and differences between biological and social macroevolution. In the second (and main) part, we consider a concrete mathematical model capable of describing important features of both biological and social macroevolution. In mathematical models of historical macrodynamics, a hyperbolic pattern of world population growth arises from non-linear, second-order positive feedback between demographic growth and technological development. Based on diverse paleontological data and an analogy with macrosociological models, we suggest that the (...)
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  40. The Inflationary and Deflationary Trends in the Global Economy, or ‘the Japanese Disease’ is Spreading.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2014 - Journal of Globalization Studies 5 (2):152-173.
    The danger of deflation has been rather frequently mentioned recently among nu-merous concerns over the European and partly American economies. Analysts cite the Japanese economy which has been suffering from deflation for the last two decades despite the large investments in economy and the government's efforts to increase inflation. Similarly, notwithstanding many trillions of dollars, euro, pounds and yen that were invested in economies over the past few years, the infla-tion in the Western countries still remains low. On the whole, (...)
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  41. Stability of sociopolitical systems in the context of globalization: revolution and democracy.Leonid Grinin & Andrey V. Korotayev - 2015 - Central European Journal of International and Security Studies 9 (2):01-34.
    Issues of sociopolitical systems’ stability and risks of their destabi-lization in process of political transformations belong to the most important ones as regards the social development perspectives, as has been shown again by the recent events in Ukraine. In this re-spect it appears necessary to note that the transition to democracy may pose a serious threat to the stability of respective sociopolitical systems. This article studies the issue of democratization of countries within globalization context, it points to the unreasonably high (...)
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  42. Modeling of Biological and Social Phases of Big History.Leonid Grinin, Andrey V. Korotayev & Alexander V. Markov - 2015 - In Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev (eds.), Evolution: From Big Bang to Nanorobots. Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 111-150.
    In the first part of this article we survey general similarities and differences between biological and social macroevolution. In the second (and main) part, we consider a concrete mathematical model capable of describing important features of both biological and social macroevolution. In mathematical models of historical macrodynamics, a hyperbolic pattern of world population growth arises from non-linear, second-order positive feedback between demographic growth and technological development. Based on diverse paleontological data and an analogy with macrosociological models, we suggest that the (...)
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  43. Globalization, Revolutions, and Democracy.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2015 - In Leonid Grinin, Ilya Ilyin, Peter Herrmann & Andrey V. Korotayev (eds.), Globalistics and Globalization Studies: Big History & Global History. Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 87-109.
    This article studies the issue of democratization of countries within globalization context, it points to the unreasonably high economic and social costs of a rapid transition to democracy as a result of revolutions or of similar large-scale events for the countries unprepared for it. The authors believe that in a number of cases the authoritarian regimes turn out to be more effective in economic and social terms in comparison with emerging democracies especially of the revolutionary type, which are often incapable (...)
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  44. Introduction. Research into Global Ageing and Its Consequences.Leonid Grinin, J. Goldstone & Andrey Koortayev - 2015 - In Leonid Grinin, Jack A. Goldstone & Andrey V. Korotayev (eds.), History & Mathematics: Political Demography and Global Ageing. Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 5-9.
    With the further growth of the world population and the further intensification of the processes of interaction between countries and increasing movements of the masses of people, the role of Political Demography becomes more and more important. Issues of global ageing, migration, low fertility in developed countries (or very high fertility in some African countries), high mortality in many developing states (including deaths from AIDS); rapid change in the ethnic composition in Europe and in several other regions and many other (...)
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  45. The processes of systemic integration in the world system.Leonid Grinin - 2017 - Journal of Globalization Studies 8 (1):97-118.
    The paper discusses some aspects of integration of different regions and societies in the course of historical globalization. Within historical globalization one can observe a close correlation between such important processes as technological transformations, urbanization, political integration, struggle for political hegemony, etc. In the paper we analyze these correlations to associate historical globalization with phases of expansion. Within the expansion process we point out seven levels from the local level through the planetary one. The most significant changes were associated with (...)
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  46. (1 other version)Beyond Global Studies. The Introductory Lecture to Big History Course.Leonid Grinin - 2014 - In Leonid Grinin, Ilya V. Ilyin & Andrey V. Korotayev (eds.), Globalistics and Globalization Studies. Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 321-328.
    Global studies can be made not only with respect to the humans who inhabit the Earth, they can well be done with respect to biological and abiotic systems of our planet. Such an approach opens wide horizons for the modern university education as it helps to form a global view of various processes. However, we can also ask ourselves whether the limits of our studies can be moved further. Would not it be useful for the students to understand the evolution (...)
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  47. (1 other version)The Star-Galaxy Era of Big History in the Light of Universal Evolutionary Principles.Leonid Grinin - 2014 - In Leonid Grinin, David Baker, Esther Quaedackers & Andrey Korotayev (eds.), Teaching & Researching Big History: Exploring a New Scholarly Field. Volgograd: "Uchitel" Publishing House. pp. 163-187.
    Big History provides a unique opportunity to consider the development of the Universe as a single process. Within Big History studies one can distinguish some common evolutionary laws and principles. However, it is very important to recognize that there are many more such integrating principles, laws, mechanisms and patterns of evolution at all its levels than it is usually supposed. In the meantime, we can find the common traits in development, functioning, and interaction of apparently rather different processes and phenomena (...)
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  48. (1 other version)Early State and Ancient Democracy.Leonid Grinin - 2013 - Collection of Papers of International Academic Conference on Political Systems of Early States:138-152.
    The present article is devoted to the problem which is debated today, namely, whether Greek poleis and the Roman Republic were early states or they represented a specific type of stateless societies. The diversity of sociopolitical evolution is expressed in a tremendous variety of the early states proper among which the bureaucratic states represent just one of many types. The democratic early states without bureaucracy were early states of another type. In this article Athens and the Roman Republic are analyzed (...)
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  49. Teaching & Researching Big History: Exploring a New Scholarly Field.Leonid Grinin, David Baker, Esther Quaedackers & Andrey Korotayev - 2014 - Volgograd: "Uchitel" Publishing House.
    According to the working definition of the International Big History Association, ‘Big History seeks to understand the integrated history of the Cosmos, Earth, Life and Humanity, using the best available empirical evidence and scholarly methods’. In recent years Big History has been developing very fast indeed. Big History courses are taught in the schools and universities of several dozen countries. Hundreds of researchers are involved in studying and teaching Big History. The unique approach of Big History, the interdisciplinary genre of (...)
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  50. Globalistics and Globalization Studies: Global Transformations and Global Future.Leonid Grinin, Ilya Illin, Andrey Korotayev & Peter Herrmann - 2016 - Volgograd, Russia: Uchitel Publishing House.
    The present volume is the fifth in the series of yearbooks with the title Globalistics and Globalization Studies. The subtitle of the present volume is Global Transformations and Global Future. We become more and more accustomed to think globally and to see global processes. And our future can all means be global. However, is this statement justified? Indeed, in recent years, many have begun to claim that globalization has stalled, that we are rather dealing with the process of anti-globalization. Will (...)
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