Prediction versus accommodation in economics

Journal of Economic Methodology 26 (1):59-69 (2019)
  Copy   BIBTEX

Abstract

Should we insist on prediction, i.e. on correctly forecasting the future? Or can we rest content with accommodation, i.e. empirical success only with respect to the past? I apply general considerations about this issue to the case of economics. In particular, I examine various ways in which mere accommodation can be sufficient, in order to see whether those ways apply to economics. Two conclusions result. First, an entanglement thesis: the need for prediction is entangled with the methodological role of orthodox economic theory. Second, a conditional predictivism: if we are not committed to orthodox economic theory, then we should demand prediction rather than accommodation – against most current practice.

Author's Profile

Robert Northcott
Birkbeck, University of London

Analytics

Added to PP
2018-12-26

Downloads
154 (#45,437)

6 months
30 (#34,514)

Historical graph of downloads since first upload
This graph includes both downloads from PhilArchive and clicks on external links on PhilPapers.
How can I increase my downloads?